Last Friday, when the U.S. April non-farm data was released—new jobs increased by 177,000, exceeding the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%. Just 15 minutes after the data was announced, U.S. President Trump couldn't help but jump in to say: There’s no reason not to cut interest rates, Federal Reserve, what are you waiting for? But the market didn't listen to him at all. Instead, U.S. Treasury yields soared, with the two-year Treasury recording its largest two-day increase since October last year. Traders pushed back rate cut expectations from June to July and even September, all while showing an attitude of 'Powell won’t listen to your nonsense, Trump.'

This showdown of 'strong data vs rate cut fantasies' is almost like a script. Whether you say Trump wants to save the market or seek re-election, the bottom line is that he is forcing the Federal Reserve to act quickly. The problem is, the Federal Reserve doesn't seem to be in a hurry. They were scared off during the COVID inflation spike, and now their stance is: 'You need to show me that the data has actually worsened; otherwise, I won’t move.'

Currently, core PCE is still above 3%, inflation is below target, the labor market remains tight, and the trade war is making the market uneasy. Powell certainly needs to take it steady, and he has to act as if he is 'completely unaffected by the White House.' So do you think he will shift to a dovish stance in June? The market is increasingly skeptical.

What about Bitcoin?

What does all of this mean for BTC? In simple terms: a delayed rate cut = short-term fluctuations; but once the rate cut occurs = mid-term explosion.

Bitcoin has indeed been struggling to rise recently; on one hand, the U.S. dollar index remains high and liquidity is tight, while on the other hand, market risk appetite is suppressed. Are you expecting a large influx of capital? It may still be too early in the short term.

But don’t overlook a key logic: the speed of expectation shifts is much faster than you think.

If the data starts to weaken in the next two months, such as:

  • CPI falls below 2.5%

  • Non-farm employment below 100,000

  • Unemployment rate breaks above 4.5%

Market sentiment can change in an instant; by then, don’t say July—an unexpected rate cut in June is also possible. When this shift occurs, BTC’s reaction is often faster and more intense than that of U.S. stocks. After all, Bitcoin is a market highly sensitive to 'liquidity + policy expectations'; once capital catches a whiff of easing, it will quickly increase its stakes.

The conclusion is simple:

In the short term, BTC will maintain high-level fluctuations, waiting to see the direction of macro data. In the medium term, as long as the Federal Reserve softens its stance, breaking through $100,000 for Bitcoin is not a dream, but the result of a collaboration between technology and capital.

Now is the observation period; don’t chase highs, and don't retreat. Maintain flexible positions and closely monitor monthly data—especially CPI, non-farm, and unemployment rate. These numbers are not just news; they are early signals of an impending market explosion.

A final note for those still hesitating: don’t wait until 'the Federal Reserve cuts rates' becomes a headline before you start looking for entry points. By then, you’ll likely be chasing others upward.

Follow me, and I'll help you understand policy trends without any barriers!

Daily policy releases and market analysis, thank you all for your support!