Follow me, and I'll help you understand the market every day

Strong Employment = No Interest Rate Cuts? The Fed Stays Tough, Trump Loses It, What About Bitcoin?

The U.S. April non-farm payrolls were released, adding 177,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, so strong that even Trump couldn't stand it and directly lashed out: when will you lower interest rates? Powell, what are you waiting for?

As a result, the market completely ignored him and instead took actions that pushed U.S. Treasury yields to the sky, with the two-year yield experiencing the largest increase since October of last year, making it very clear: don't expect rate cuts in June, July is also uncertain.

You read that right, strong data = delayed rate cuts = risk assets stagnating.

Now let's take a look at Bitcoin, which has recently been a classic case of "wanting to rise but unable to, wanting to fall but not falling," being repeatedly pressed in place by macro sentiment. Did you think it was about to take off? As soon as the data was released, it shut down on the spot.

But don't rush, if we really have to wait for the data to start weakening, for example:
• CPI falls below 2.5%
• Non-farm employment below 100,000
• Unemployment rate breaks above 4.5%

No matter how tough the Fed is, it will have to pivot, and market liquidity will immediately reverse. By then, BTC hitting 100,000 will just be a matter of course.

The current issue is that the White House wants to ease, but Powell is holding firm, and the market is watching the show in the middle.

As a crypto player, you need to understand one thing: the speed of the shift in sentiment is much faster than the speed at which you click on contracts.

In summary: "The tougher the Fed, the more Bitcoin gets suppressed; once it eases, Bitcoin goes crazy."

For those still hesitating, waiting to chase when interest rates are really cut might mean you can't even get in on the action.