Good evening, friends in the cryptocurrency world! Currently, the market for Bitcoin (BTC) is in a stalemate, with intense battles between bulls and bears, creating a chaotic state where 'each side has its own reasoning.' Before the trend becomes clear, both sides are evenly matched, and each logic has its grounds. However, in my personal judgment, I lean towards the bears having the upper hand.
From a technical perspective, the critical upward trend line on the hourly chart for BTC has been completely broken. Although there was a subsequent upward pullback, it failed to form an effective breakout. Until the price is fully above this trend line and the closing price stabilizes above it, I maintain a bearish view; only when this condition is met will I change my mindset from bearish to bullish. Specifically, if BTC breaks above 96276 with volume, you may try to go long on the right side; once 96180 is broken with volume, and if the pullback cannot recover that level, it's advisable to go short on the right side. Throughout this process, it is crucial to closely monitor volume changes, as volume is an important indicator for assessing trend continuity. Furthermore, only by successfully breaking through and stabilizing above 96567 on the hourly chart can BTC hope to further challenge 97071, and even the previous high of 97865; conversely, if it cannot break through, the upside potential will be temporarily limited. On the 4-hour chart, if 96302 is broken and the 4-hour closing price is below this level, a corrective trend will officially begin, with support levels to watch at 95493 - 94261. Currently, the 4-hour trend is complex, and bulls need to remain vigilant, strictly set stop-losses, and avoid potential risks.
Looking at the market for Ethereum (ETH), the critical level of 1800 is precarious. If this level is lost, the price may plunge into a deeper abyss of decline. I remind everyone that whether holding spot or contracts, if your position has caused you significant psychological stress and severely impacted your daily life, it may be wise to decisively cut losses. After all, a healthy body and mind, as well as a good mindset, are invaluable treasures. Technically, the hourly chart for ETH shows a clear large M-shaped pattern. Only when the price breaks above 1852 can the risk of the M-shaped pattern be alleviated; otherwise, the danger will persist. If the M-shaped pattern completes, the price needs to break below 1814 for the downtrend to continue further. The specific operational suggestion is that when ETH breaks above 1827 with volume, you may try to go long on the right side to capture small rebound profits; if it breaks below 1823 with volume, then choose to go short on the right side, also closely monitor the volume changes. If it can stabilize above 1837 on the hourly chart, ETH is expected to challenge 1864 - 1894, but based on the current trend, achieving this target is challenging. On the 4-hour chart, once 1815 is broken, the price will retest 1782 - 1737. The two large upper shadow lines on the hourly chart resemble double tops, fully indicating great pressure above. Considering that the market on Saturdays is often either calm or highly volatile, I recommend that everyone take profits in time while strictly setting stop-losses and managing risks. I wish everyone successful trading!
