Good evening, fellow cryptocurrency enthusiasts! Today's morning drop in Bitcoin has sparked much discussion in the market, with many speculating: has this round of decline hit the bottom? In my view, the situation is far from over; the current rebound is merely a brief respite within the downward trend, and a second bottom test is almost a certainty. The market rarely sees the miracle of a 'V-shaped reversal', and one should not harbor the illusion that 'whatever goes down will come back up.' Trading decisions must be based on rational analysis rather than subjective expectations.
From a technical pattern perspective, the two bottom tests of Bitcoin at the hourly level seem to indicate a 'double bottom' pattern, but this is likely a trap set by the main force. If it holds support during another test of the previous low, it could trigger a rebound; however, if it breaks down, the price will seek lower support levels. In terms of specific operations, it is suggested to closely monitor changes in volume: if the volume breaks above 94595, one can go long on the right side; if 94401 breaks with volume and the rebound cannot recover, decisively go short on the right side. On the hourly level, only if it firmly stands above 94794 will there be a chance to challenge the 95172 - 95717 resistance range, otherwise, it will continue to oscillate sideways. It is even more important to be cautious; if the 4-hour level breaks below 94002 again, the target below will point directly to 92985 - 91656, which would also mean the complete end of this upward trend.
Looking at the Fibonacci retracement theory, Bitcoin has not been able to break through the 23.6% retracement level throughout the afternoon after the morning's drop. If the market were truly strong, after testing the support at 93500, it should at least rebound to the 38.2% - 50% range, and a strong market could even reach the 61.8% level before encountering resistance. In contrast, the current rebound of Bitcoin is weak, only rising 1200 points before stagnating, which is far from the performance during historically strong phases. The key signal for determining its true strength will be when it can rebound to the 50% retracement level, and strict stop-loss settings are essential when trading.
Ethereum's (Bitcoin) evening trend and strategy
Today's performance of Bitcoin is quite 'stubborn'. After briefly falling below 1800 in the morning, it quickly regained its losses and is currently oscillating above this level. This seemingly strong stance actually hides risks, much like a 'paper tiger' that is just bluffing; overexertion can easily expose vulnerabilities.
From a technical indicators analysis, although the MACD fast line on the daily chart has crossed above the zero line, the slow line remains deeply underwater, indicating that both bulls and bears are still fiercely competing for dominance. As time passes, if the fast line falls back again, bears are likely to regain control. The weekly chart formed a high-level doji star last week, clearly indicating strong resistance above. Based on this, Bitcoin is likely to start a correction this week, and the specific depth of the correction needs to be observed in real time.
In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended to closely monitor key points: if the volume breaks below 1812, one can short on the right side; if the volume breaks above 1823, one can try to go long to catch the rebound, but be cautious about quick entry and exit. On the hourly level, only if it firmly stands above 1818 will there be a chance to challenge the 1850 - 1890 range, but based on the current trend, this is quite difficult. If the 4-hour level breaks below 1795 and cannot recover, Bitcoin will begin a deep correction, targeting 1744 - 1692. Trading is a probability game, with opportunities for both bulls and bears, and the key lies in accurately grasping the entry timing and strictly executing the trading plan. I hope everyone remains calm and responds rationally to market fluctuations, wishing you successful trading tonight!
