Is SUI's comeback imminent? The key support level of $3.40 has become a lifeline for bulls and bears!
Summary
SUI is currently priced at $3.4021, and is in a short-term oversold rebound window. Technically, the price is closely touching the lower Bollinger Band, with effective support from the holding cost, but the MA200 is forming resistance. It is suggested to try a small long position in the range of $3.38-$3.40, with a target of $3.53, and a strict stop loss if it falls below $3.38. One should be cautious of liquidity risks caused by a 92% sharp reduction in contract positions and selling pressure after the ETF favorable effects are realized.
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Technical Analysis
1. Price Status:
• Bollinger Band Position: The price touches the lower band at $3.4005, with a 1.62 standard deviation deviation indicating oversold conditions, and there is potential for mean reversion momentum.
• MA200 Position: The current price is below $3.535 (-3.77% deviation), forming strong resistance above.
• Holding Cost: The current price is above $3.3867 (+0.45%), providing effective short-term support.
2. Market Strength:
• Volume Analysis: 24-hour trading volume has shrunk by 63%, with declining downward momentum.
• Position Changes: Contract open interest has sharply decreased by 92% in 24 hours, with main funds accelerating withdrawal.
• Long/Short Ratio Changes: Long/short ratio changed from 1.3264 to 1.2398, with short selling power continuing to strengthen.
3. Key Positions:
• Support Level: $3.388 (lower edge of the dense trading area + holding cost)
• Resistance Level: $3.535 (MA200 + middle line of Bollinger Band)
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Market Cycle Analysis
Currently at the end of a downward cycle, the synchronous decline in price/open interest shows panic selling characteristics, but ETF favorable effects may trigger a technical rebound.
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Trading Strategy
1. Specific Points:
• Entry Point: $3.40 (support from the lower Bollinger Band)
• Stop Loss Point: $3.38 (break below holding cost + dense trading area)
• Target Point: $3.53 (MA200 resistance)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.6 ((3.53-3.40)/(3.40-3.38)=6.5%)
2. Risk Warning:
• Negative funding rates for contracts may trigger a cascade effect.
• A net outflow of $476 million in 5 days has intensified liquidity risks.
• Breaking $3.53 requires accompanying trading volume; otherwise, timely profit-taking is advised.
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