SOL Bull-Bear Showdown Critical Moment: Can the Key Support Level of $146 Hold?
Summary
The current price of SOL at $146.84 is at a critical watershed, with a technical pattern showing a mix of support at the lower Bollinger Band and pressure from MA200. It is recommended to establish a short position around $147.5, targeting $142.5, with a stop loss at $149.5 (risk-reward ratio 2.5:1). Caution is advised regarding the risk of a breakdown caused by continued outflow of main funds, with a focus on the direction of the high transaction density zone between $136.7-$152.3.
Technical Analysis
1. Price Status:
• Bollinger Band Position: Price touches the lower band at $146.45 (Bollinger position 16.98%), but RSI 46.2 has not reached oversold, indicating a short-term need for technical correction
• MA200 Position: Price is 1.22% below MA200 ($148.65), indicating a weak mid-term trend
• Holding Cost: 0.68% below the holding cost line ($147.85), which may create selling pressure from trapped positions
2. Market Strength:
• Trading Volume: 24-hour trading volume shrank by 50%, with a price drop of 0.81%, showing characteristics of a volume-less decline
• Position Direction: 8-hour open interest decreased by 1.84% alongside a 1.32% price drop, indicating active short covering
• Long-Short Ratio: Smart money long-short ratio 1.66→1.56, indicating an increase in short strength in the derivatives market
• News: Cold wallet project popularity may divert funds (news timeliness is diminishing)
3. Key Price Levels:
• Support Level: $136.7 (20.41% lower edge of the spot trading density zone)
• Resistance Level: $152.3 (upper edge of the trading density zone + overlapping pressure from MA200)
Market Cycle Analysis
1. Current Cycle: In the mid-adjustment phase of a bull market, on-chain data shows a net outflow of 5.25m SOL over 30 days (-25.33%), indicating significant fund withdrawal.
Trading Strategy
1. Specific Levels:
• Entry: $147.5 (pressure level where MA200 and the middle Bollinger Band converge)
• Stop Loss: $149.5 (2% buffer space above the previous high)
• Target: $142.5 (volume gap + psychological round number)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.5:1 (Risk $40 vs Potential Gain $100)
2. Risk Warning:
• A net outflow of 1.94m SOL from the main contract funds over 7 days may trigger a liquidity crisis
• Operating Advice: Use a 10% position + dynamic stop loss, and immediately stop loss and reverse if it breaks $152.3
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