🚀Ethereum is on the verge of a breakthrough! Vitalik shares the simplified roadmap for 2030, igniting the market🔥
Summary
The current ETH price is $1834, standing above the MA200 and holding cost line, showing characteristics of short-term consolidation. The technical analysis indicates that the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting a potential breakout, but ongoing net outflows in the contract market expose liquidity risks. It is recommended to adopt a breakout strategy in the $1818-$1844 range, with a strict 1.5% stop loss, focusing on significant position changes and trading volume.
---
Technical Analysis
1. Price Status:
• Bollinger Bands Analysis: Price is positioned on the upper-middle band (1818-1844), with a 60.7% percentile indicating upward potential; a breakout above 1844 will open up a trending market
• MA200 Analysis: The current price is above the 1811 support level, with a 1.23% positive divergence indicating that the medium-term trend is maintained
• Holding Cost Analysis: The $1802 cost line provides strong support, with a 1.76% premium suggesting that most holdings are profitable
2. Market Strength:
• Trading Volume Analysis: 24-hour volume shrank by 8.2%, and price fluctuations are narrowing, necessitating caution against false breakouts
• Position Trends: Contract positions decreased by 3.93% in 24 hours, but the long-short ratio rose to 1.86, indicating a high-level turnover among major players
• Smart Money Signals: The perpetual contract funding rate of 0.0072% remains healthy, with no extreme leverage observed
3. Key Price Levels:
• Support Levels: 1818 (Bollinger lower band) + 1802 (holding cost)
• Resistance Levels: 1844 (Bollinger upper band) → after breakout, look for 1875 (previous high Fibonacci level)
---
Market Cycle Analysis
1. Current Cycle:
In the early stage of a bull market, the MA200 and cost line provide double support validating the market bottom, but an increase in trading volume is needed to confirm the trend
---
Trading Strategy
1. Specific Levels:
• Breakout Long: 1845 (breaking the Bollinger Bands + volume confirmation)
• Stop Loss: 1815 (breaking below MA200 + dual support of cost line)
• Target: 1875 (previous high resistance level)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1 ($30 profit / $10 stop loss)
2. Risk Warning:
• Continuous net outflows in the contract market may trigger a liquidity crisis
• Volatility index VIX fluctuations in the US stock market may affect the crypto market
• Strictly avoid holding positions below 1815; a breakout requires $500M/15min volume confirmation
Like and follow for real-time updates, and feel free to leave comments to discuss strategy details!
