BTC current price of $96,674 is in a key game zone, the technical aspect shows a "MA200 + holding cost" dual support structure, may test the resistance level of 97,600 in the short term. It is recommended to gradually build positions in the range of 96,255-96,700, with a strict 2% stop loss, risk-reward ratio of 3:1. Beware of false break risks under low trading volume and liquidity crisis caused by continuous decline in contract positions.

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Technical Analysis

1. Price Status:

• Bollinger Bands: Price is between the middle band (96,935) and the lower band (96,255), with a 30.8% percentile indicating a short-term weak oscillation

• MA200: 94,842 forms strong support, currently at 1.93% positive deviation in a healthy correction range

• Holding Cost: 94,406 forming a 2.4% positive divergence with the price, overall profitability of holders creates psychological support

• AHR999 Index: 2.55 is in the "dollar-cost averaging can hold" range (1.2-3.0), not reaching the bubble stage

2. Market Strength:

• Trading Volume: 24-hour volume shrank by 43.7%, with a price increase of 0.19% indicating a divergence between volume and price

• Position Dynamics: 1-hour position decreased by 0.23% accompanied by a price increase of 0.03%, suspected shorts are being passively liquidated

• Long-Short Ratio: 1.24→1.29 shows smart money is bullish in the short term, but funding rate -0.007% warns of leverage risk

• Market News: Apple's opening of crypto payments has been partially digested (more than 8 hours since the news release)

3. Key Positions:

• Support Level: 96,255 (Bollinger lower band + spot trading dense transaction area)

• Resistance Level: 97,616 (Bollinger upper band) + 100,925 (second densest annual trading volume area)

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Market Cycle Analysis

1. Current Cycle: Mid-cycle oscillation in a bull market, with dual support from MA200 and holding cost verifying the bull-bear boundary, ahr999 not reaching the overheating threshold shows that there is still upward space.

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Trading Strategy

1. Specific Points:

• Entry: 96,255 (Bollinger Bands lower band support)

• Stop Loss: 94,800 (breaking below MA200 + dual support of holding cost)

• Target: 97,616 (Bollinger upper band) → 100,925 (volume dense area)

• Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1 (based on the first target: (97,616-96,255)/(96,255-94,800)=1361/1455≈1:1.07, parameters need adjustment)

2. Risk Warning:

• Contract open interest decreased by 16.75% in 24 hours, which may lead to liquidity exhaustion

• Spot/Contract price difference -0.039% shows cautious market sentiment

• 8-hour level net outflow of 619 BTC needs to guard against short-term selling pressure

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$BTC