1. Current Situation and Key Factors
- DOGE price: $0.18 (consolidation at the 50-day EMA).
- Growth of open interest (OI): +2.17% (up to $1.85 billion), despite the liquidation of shorts.
- Long/short ratio: Prevalence of long positions (bullish signal).
- ETF narrative: Applications from 21Shares and Bitwise for spot ETFs are fueling interest.
2. Why is ETF important for DOGE?
- Legalization of the asset: SEC approval of the ETF will attract institutional investors.
- Simplifying access: Investors will be able to buy DOGE through exchanges without owning wallets.
- FOMO Effect: The story with Bitcoin ETF showed that such news can drive the price.
3. Technical Analysis
- Support: 50-day EMA ($0.179) — key level. Holding above it opens the way to:
- $0.204 (100-day EMA),
- $0.218 (200-day EMA).
- Risks: If DOGE loses $0.179, a pullback to $0.13 (April low) is possible.
4. Fundamental Drivers
- Partnership between 21Shares and Dogecoin Foundation: Adds credibility to the project.
- Crypto-friendly regulator (Paul Atkins): Increases the chances of ETF approval.
- General market trend: Recovery of the crypto market supports DOGE.
5. Forecast and Strategy
- Optimistic scenario: Breakthrough at $0.18 → rise to $0.20–$0.22 (if ETF news is confirmed).
- Cautious scenario: Correction to $0.15–$0.16 in case of a general market decline.
- What to watch for:
- News from the SEC on ETF applications,
- Dynamics of OI and volumes,
- Overall Bitcoin trend (correlation with DOGE remains).
Conclusion
DOGE shows potential for growth, but risks remain. Traders should consider both technical levels and fundamental factors (ETF, regulation). If the ETF mania intensifies, DOGE could repeat BTC's explosive growth story.