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It seems that the Americans themselves are quite conflicted; one moment they call for interest rate cuts, and the next they say the likelihood of cuts has greatly diminished.

The non-farm payroll data shows an increase of 177,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, and the uncertainty over tariffs has not affected the job market. However, the yield on government bonds has risen over the past two years, leading traders to reduce their expectations for rate cuts, with the anticipated cut in 2025 expected to decrease from 90 basis points to around 85 basis points.

The decline in first-quarter GDP points to the economic pressure brought on by the trade war. Although there is speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut rates four times this year, personal consumption expenditures, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, have far exceeded expectations, which also limits the central bank's room for easing.

Not to mention whether the unemployment rate is under strong control, the current value of the unemployment rate is not very ideal. On April 24, Waller emphasized the critical nature of the unemployment rate, and the unchanged unemployment rate this time may very well give Powell the opportunity to address the unemployment rate in his speech next week.

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