New data has been released on the US labor market, causing a harsh 'cut' for risk asset markets. What conclusions can be drawn from the data?
Figures:
- Change in non-farm payrolls for April: 177,000 against a forecast of 185,000 and a previous figure of 138,000.
- Average hourly wage growth (y/y): 3.8% against a forecast of 3.9% and a previous figure of 4.1%.
- Average hourly wage growth (m/m): 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.2%.
- Unemployment rate for April: 4.2% against a forecast of 4.2% and a previous figure of 4.2%.
Overall, the US labor market data for April looks moderately neutral, with a slight tilt towards positivity for the economy and risk asset markets. The number of employed turned out to be below the forecast for total NFP, BUT above the previous value. Unemployment is stable. And wages are growing at a slowing pace - the annual growth is even below the forecast, which slightly reduces inflationary pressure.
The hiring data is even unexpected. #Bloomberg greeted them with the headline 'US wage growth exceeded forecasts thanks to a significant increase of 177,000 people.'
All of this is a signal that the economy remains in a phase of slowing growth without clear signs of recession. Or stagflation, which the data on Wednesday forced us to discuss. The tariff policy of Trump, at least for now, does not hit the labor market as hard.
On the other hand, these figures do not pressure the Fed into a urgent rate decision. This is currently a disappointment for the markets.
The #BTC rate following the data release resembles a heart attack - first an upward impulse, then a drop, now a return to growth. It continues to hold above $97,000. On a 5-minute timeframe, the price remains in a downtrend, but since the morning post, it has returned to uncertainty. This is because a return to an uptrend has been established on a 15-minute timeframe. If the high of May 1 at $97,424 is surpassed, the likelihood increases that the correction has been postponed again, breaking our forecast, and the price is heading towards testing the psychological $100,000.
