Trump is once again calling on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the chances of a reduction have fallen. Notably, the latest demand was voiced immediately after the release of data that actually allows the Fed to hold off on rate changes.

Direct quote from Trump on Truth Social:

"Gas just hit $1.98$ per gallon - the lowest level in years. Food prices (and eggs!) are falling, energy is becoming cheaper, mortgage rates are declining, employment is strong, and there are many other good news as billions of dollars come in from tariffs. Everything I said is happening, and we are only at the TRANSITION STAGE - it’s just the beginning!!! Consumers have been waiting for this for years - for prices to start dropping. NO INFLATION, THE FED MUST LOWER RATES!!! DJT"

According to #CMEGroup, the probability of a rate cut on May 7 is only 3.4% (it was over 5% just yesterday).

Expectations for the meeting on June 18 have significantly changed since April 9:

- 58.8% expect a pause,

- 39.8% expect a reduction of 0.25 percentage points,

- 1.3% expect a reduction of 0.5 percentage points.

In April, the expectations for June were much more optimistic:

- 54.2% expected a reduction of 0.25 percentage points,

- 45.0% expected a reduction of 0.5 percentage points,

- 0.8% expected a reduction of 0.75 percentage points.