The balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has fallen to a five-year low, with more and more Bitcoin being withdrawn from exchanges. Some Bitcoin is moved to cold wallets, while more is transferred to institutional custody such as ETFs and funds, indicating investors' strong optimism about Bitcoin's long-term performance, with holding behavior gradually shifting from short-term to long-term. Institutional buying has also pushed Bitcoin's price back to $96,000.
Even if supply decreases, prices will only fluctuate if demand breaks through the equilibrium point, rather than changing non-linearly. Companies and institutions are using low-cost funds to acquire large amounts of Bitcoin, leading to a real reduction in Bitcoin supply. When unlimited fiat currency chases scarce assets, the price will change drastically and irreversibly. Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin is at a turning point after a price correction, preparing to enter a new round of upward momentum.
Currently, Bitcoin is diverging from the U.S. stock market trends, with funds pouring into this emerging investment area. In addition to ETF fund companies continuously buying in, large national sovereign funds are reportedly considering buying Bitcoin to seek non-dollar assets outside of gold to hedge against future uncertainty risks. Significant fund inflows are appearing for Bitcoin.
Will the altcoin ETF bring about a wave of price corrections?
With the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving the likelihood of a Litecoin (LTC) spot ETF reaching 90%, the market sentiment has rapidly heated up. Litecoin today (2nd) surged over 6%, leading the gains among the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
The final ruling deadline for the Litecoin spot ETF by the U.S. SEC falls on October 2. If it passes smoothly, it will undoubtedly open the doors to institutional investment for Litecoin and is expected to become a new engine for driving up coin prices.
With the consecutive launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, the market's call for the next wave of "competitive coin" ETFs is growing louder. It is estimated that the U.S. SEC has over a 75% chance of approving a series of altcoin spot ETFs by the end of the year, and the landscape of cryptocurrency ETFs is expected to expand comprehensively.
Currently, the SEC is reviewing 8 proposals for competitive coin spot ETFs, covering popular coins such as Solana (SOL), Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), Polkadot (DOT), and Hedera (HBAR).
The market's first critical time point falls on July 2, when the SEC will respond to the basket funds proposed by companies such as Grayscale, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and Hashdex.
As for single-asset ETFs including SOL, DOGE, XRP, and ADA, a decisive moment is expected in October, while the review results for others like AVAX, DOT, and HBAR will gradually be announced in November and December. It is noteworthy that these dates are all legal deadlines, which also means that the SEC no longer has room for further delays and must make a final decision.
On the other hand, some operators have expressed their intention to launch ETFs tracking small-cap tokens, such as SUI, TRUMP, and MELANIA, but these proposals have not yet entered the formal 19b-4 document submission stage and are insufficient to initiate the SEC review process.
The reason for the "dramatic shift" around the competitive coin ETF atmosphere lies in the new changes in U.S. politics. With Trump back in the White House and appointing Paul Atkins, who is friendly to cryptocurrencies, as the new SEC chairman, the overall regulatory tone has clearly shifted towards openness.
