History shows that the second quarter has always been the most explosive period for the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin's average increase exceeding 25%, while ETH's increase is even more astounding, exceeding 60%. Despite concerns about the tariff impacts of Trump's policies, the market has already strongly rebounded, returning to an important threshold.
During this process, the greedy long positions have been completely liquidated, and the excessive leverage has been eliminated. The market has now been cleared—this is a perfect process to initiate a sustainable rebound. As signs of Bitcoin's dominance beginning to weaken appear, and the possibility of a pullback looms, strong signs of altcoins rising are becoming increasingly evident—it may be inevitable.
Bitcoin's dominance is rising, but this time, it shows a different pattern compared to previous cycles. Unlike the earlier volatile phases (sudden spikes or crashes), BTC's dominance is now gradually forming a sustainable growth structure, with higher peaks and troughs, indicating an organized accumulation trend.
It is noteworthy that when BTC's dominance begins to weaken, trading volume also surges, especially after peaking at 70% in 2021. This indicates that as BTC approaches the strategic resistance zone, the market reacts strongly.
Currently, the index is approaching one of the most important resistance levels. If BTC is rejected here, it may herald the beginning of the altcoin season, as funds begin to shift towards smaller assets.
Conversely, if BTC breaks through this resistance zone, the dominance index may continue to rise, between 71.36% and 72.7%—a strong resistance zone that may reshape the entire market trend in the short term.
When does the altcoin season begin?
The current altcoin charts strikingly reflect the patterns seen during the legendary altcoin season of 2017-2018. At that time, Trump was still in office, and just like today, there was no significant altcoin breakout in the first quarter—remarkable similarity.
However, the current situation has a stronger supporting factor: the Fed and China are both releasing the possibility of monetary easing (QE)—which was not present in the previous cycle. This could be a catalyst to drive altcoins to rise strongly and continuously starting from the second quarter.
If history repeats itself—and data tends to suggest this—the main growth peak of the altcoin market may emerge, similar to what happened nearly a decade ago. With the convergence of macro and technical factors, the upcoming altcoin season may not only repeat but be an even more explosive upgraded version.
The charts of altcoin market capitalization from 2016, 2020, and 2024 show astonishing similarities: the recurring accumulation patterns are remarkably alike. In the previous two cycles, long-term accumulation was the cornerstone of the explosive price increases in 2017 and 2021, marking historic milestones for the altcoin market.
Currently, technical signals indicate that altcoins are at the 'foothills' of the new bull market season 'Altcoin Season 3.0.' With the re-emergence of accumulation patterns and supportive macro factors, the likelihood of similar growth cycles beginning is entirely reasonable.
If the growth trajectory repeats with the same intensity as previous cycles, the market capitalization of altcoins could reach the 5 trillion dollar mark.
Today's fear index is 59, and the market has turned neutral.
MicroStrategy is indeed wealthy, having bought nearly 200 million in Bitcoin, and currently has made 141 billion from Bitcoin purchases. Additionally, if other companies follow suit, it will bring a steady stream of buying and strategic reserves for Bitcoin, which are all potential positives.
Back to the market, currently Bitcoin is 94244, Ethereum 1800. With the interest rate meeting approaching, the market is in a wait-and-see mode. Currently, cash flow mainly comes from large financial institutions, and retail investors are relatively absent, so the market has not been able to FOMO. In the short term, Bitcoin support is at 93000, Ethereum at 1700. Trends generally take some time to form. If there are pullbacks that do not break this position, it can be considered as a short-term entry point.