My judgment on the trend of BTC is that the traditional four-year bull-bear cycle is no longer in place, replaced by a super slow bull market with a ten-year cycle.
1. Two major holders, MicroStrategy and ETF, together hold 1 million Bitcoins. From the drop from 110,000 to over 70,000, 95% of their BTC remains. Their intention to hold long-term against inflation is obvious, which is the main reason why it won't drop below 70,000 in the short term.
2. All technical indicators support a 50% drop for BTC. Altcoins are at their necks, but BTC isn't dropping. If it doesn't drop, it must rise; the bull market isn't over.
3. BlackRock's CEO said that the next ten years will be the net adoption period for Bitcoin. Institutional positions in Bitcoin are extremely low, averaging below 1%, and they are slowly building positions at lower prices, which also aligns with the inference that the bull market is still ongoing.
4. Bitcoin has risen less in this bull market, and naturally, it falls less during corrections. This is the type of Bitcoin that Wall Street wants to see, resembling a slow bull market like the US stock market.
5. Bitcoin should reach 200,000 to 250,000 this year or next year.
6. The essence of the altcoin bull market is purely driven by funds. Investors profit from Bitcoin and, after selling Bitcoin at high prices, have nowhere to go. Funds flood into altcoins and new coins with low price increases and small selling pressure. However, this time Bitcoin rose to 110,000, and profits were less than before, so funds flowing into altcoins were also less, leading to the altcoins surging last year but then going bearish.
7. It is foreseeable that when Bitcoin rises to 150,000 to 200,000, after funds take profits at high levels, they will continue to enter altcoins, pushing altcoins to form high-multiple bull markets as in the past.
