Recently, the so-called 'Meme Engine' Pump.fun has once again stirred the market. Rumors about its upcoming token launch have triggered strong risk-averse sentiments in an already fragile on-chain ecosystem. Some call it a new benchmark for the attention economy; others label it as the 'number one toxic asset' in the Solana ecosystem.
So, is Pump.fun an untamed dark horse, or is it the last hurrah of the cryptocurrency FOMO culture? The storm surrounding this token launch may be the ultimate test of its true value.
01
What happened: The heated discussion around the Pump.fun token launch
Here’s the situation: reports suggest that Pump.fun plans to raise $1 billion through public and private token sales, with a valuation of up to $4 billion. This news has shaken the Solana ecosystem, leading to a surge in risk-averse behavior. Although the official confirmation of the specific launch date is still pending, hints on their social accounts suggest that there might be actions 'within two weeks' — consistent with their previous statements.
In fact, this is not Pump.fun's first attempt to launch a token. Back in February this year, they considered conducting a Dutch auction, but at that time, Trump and his wife launched their own MemeCoin, attracting all the attention and liquidity, forcing Pump.fun to temporarily shelve their plans. Now, although the market has slightly warmed up, it has not yet returned to peak momentum. So, will this token launch be successful? This is not something we can easily judge — it needs to be viewed from the market perspective.
1-1 Cold Hard Data
As of June 4, Pump.fun's cumulative revenue has exceeded $730 million. Sounds impressive, right? But hold on — since February, its daily revenue has significantly dropped from nearly $15 million at its peak to just a few million dollars, effectively halving.
1-2 Trading Volume
By the end of 2024, Pump.fun's weekly trading volume reached a record high of $3.3 billion. Nowadays, even a weekly trading volume of $1 billion is worth celebrating. In short, liquidity and user activity have severely depleted after the initial 'boom'.
What’s more concerning is that the number of tokens created daily has dropped from a peak of 70,000 to about 30,000. What does this indicate? User interest in this 'dice-rolling' game is waning.
1-3 Who is Really Making Money?
Pump.fun seems to be a fast track to financial freedom, but the reality is far from optimistic. According to Dune data, there were about 594,000 active wallets in May:
Only 3.6% of users made more than $500 in profit;
Only 0.1% of users made over $10,000;
Only 27 wallets (about 0.0045%) netted more than $100,000.
Meanwhile, 52.5% of users lost money, with some even losing over $1 million.
The logic is simple: the vast majority of users are the 'exit liquidity' for a few winners — just like in a casino, everyone thinks they will win, but in the end, most lose everything.
02
Solana Faces Risk-Averse Withdrawals
With the intensification of rumors about the Pump.fun token, Solana-based MemeCoins have suffered a heavy blow. Within 24 hours of the news announcement, major Solana MemeCoins recorded losses, and Artemis data shows that Solana ranks third among all chains for net capital outflows.
Essentially, Pump.fun's token plan is seen as an impending liquidity black hole — the market is responding accordingly.
03
The Controversy of the $4 Billion Valuation
What is the most controversial issue? That is the staggering $4 billion valuation. In comparison, Yuga Labs had a similar valuation when launching the APE token. So, how can Pump.fun justify such a high valuation?
Crypto researcher @Haotian pointed out mercilessly that this valuation is 'severely overestimated'. He raised four points of criticism:
Monetizing attention is a short-term game: built on FOMO and speculation, lacking long-term fundamental support.
No real moat: a new Solana application could easily replace it.
Over-engineering harms the Meme spirit: Meme culture relies on simplicity — excessive features can stifle its appeal.
Valuation incentives harm innovation: when traffic monetization overrides true technology, cryptocurrencies deviate from their original intention.
Another KOL @xingpt pointed out that Pump.fun's 30-day annualized revenue is $77.98 million. With a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $5 billion, its FDV/revenue ratio is about 64 — a rather high number. In contrast, DeFi blue-chip projects like Raydium and PancakeSwap show more stable profitability but have more conservative valuations, highlighting the high risk of Pump.fun.
04
But not everyone is bearish.
There are also supporters who have spoken out. KOL @CryptoV believes that Pump.fun has played a key role in making Solana the main battleground for on-chain activities. It addresses the full-stack issues from zero liquidity to centralized exchange (CEX) listing — like the iPhone of the blockchain. He thinks that Pump.fun has captured the two key indicators of the attention economy: liquidity and screen time.
He also pointed out that based on a P/E ratio of just 5, Pump.fun could actually be a value investment. No airdrops, no insider games — just pure product-driven traction. From this perspective, it is more stable than many hype-driven projects.
At first glance, Pump.fun's token plan may just be another market hype event. But beneath the surface lies a deeper struggle of cryptocurrency ideologies: value systems, valuation models, attention economy, and sustainability.
In the short term, the project may still trigger a brief wave of excitement. But in the long run, whether this FOMO-driven business model can establish true defenses remains to be seen. If it successfully creates a complete Meme ecosystem through this token launch, it may indeed deserve the title of 'on-chain iPhone'. But if this is just the last exit from the boom, what it leaves behind may only be devastation.
The coming weeks are crucial. This is not just a token launch — it is a live experiment of the on-chain attention economy mechanism.
