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The collapse on October 10th, resulting in liquidations worth over 20 billion VND, could be more serious than we all think. Two months after the historic liquidation shock triggered by President Donald Trump's tariff announcement, the Bitcoin market has yet to return to its familiar state. While the price of BTC hovers around $80,000, the market structure has clearly changed: lower leverage, thinner liquidity, and significantly weaker buying power from ETFs. The "easy to trade" feeling of early October has almost completely disappeared. The events of October 10th were not simply a correction, but a systemic deleveraging process. Over $19 billion in positions were liquidated amidst thin order books, driving prices down through forced selling rather than proactive investor decisions. Following this shock, market makers became cautious, traders reduced their position sizes, and every rebound lacked confidence. By the end of the year, signs of recovery were still not convincing. Spot order depth was low, open interest and funding remained cautious. More importantly, ETF flows that had previously acted as a marginal demand driver in the cycle reversed, with billions of dollars withdrawn in November. After October 10th, Bitcoin was not only affected internally but also pulled closer to the macroeconomic trajectory. In an environment of risk withdrawal from the system, BTC traded as a high-beta asset, clearly reflecting a more cautious and fragile market state than before.
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$XRP Analysis : $225M XRP loss hits Evernorth – Here’s what happened
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Two key indicators suggest selling pressure on Bitcoin is easing – Will this lead to a price increase? Bitcoin (BTC) prices continued to fall by nearly 1% today, extending the decline that has seen the asset lose approximately 3.6% since the beginning of the month. However, several key on-chain indicators are showing signs of easing selling pressure, raising hopes that the market may be approaching equilibrium. Nevertheless, analysts remain cautious, as current buying pressure is not strong enough to confirm a clear recovery. According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) index has fallen significantly following the major shift from Coinbase over a month ago. This development suggests that long-term investors, who hold the majority of the supply, are limiting their selling, thereby weakening potential selling pressure. This is generally considered a positive sign during market bottoming phases. Simultaneously, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are also improving. While the 30-day moving average remains in negative territory, outflows have narrowed significantly in recent weeks, reflecting less pessimistic sentiment from institutional investors. However, the sharp decline in stablecoin reserves on exchanges suggests that immediate buying power remains weak. This implies that Bitcoin may need more time to consolidate before a sustainable uptrend emerges.
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Binance's USD1 market capitalization surged by $150 million after a promotional offer from Binance. On Wednesday (December 24, 2025), the market capitalization of the stablecoin World Liberty Financial USD (USD1) – a project associated with the family of US President Donald Trump – increased by $150 million, reaching $2.89 billion (up from $2.74 billion previously). This surge in growth occurred shortly after Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, announced its “Booster Program.” Under this program, Binance offers an annual yield (APR) of up to 20% for users depositing USD1 with deposits exceeding $50,000. However, the relationship between Binance and World Liberty Financial remains under scrutiny from regulators. Some reports from Bloomberg suggest Binance may have been involved in developing the source code for USD1, although founder Changpeng Zhao has denied this.
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Signs of an altcoin season have emerged, but this cycle is not expected to be a strong bull run. Altcoin seasons are returning to the spotlight of the cryptocurrency market, with many price charts showing significant volatility and social media discussions becoming more lively. However, actual data suggests that the current cycle differs significantly from traditional "altcoin seasons." Instead of simultaneous growth, the market is witnessing a clear divergence among altcoins. According to performance statistics over the past 60 days, only about 8 out of 55 large-cap altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin. The majority of the rest have recorded poor performance, or even price declines, while Bitcoin has mostly traded sideways. This suggests that capital flows are not widespread, but rather concentrated on a few tokens with their own stories or momentum. BAT and CHZ are rare examples, with relative gains compared to BTC, but these are isolated cases. The Altcoin Season Index, a measure of the number of altcoins outnumbering Bitcoin, remains in low territory. While the index has stopped falling, it reflects a more stable state rather than a breakout. Simultaneously, Bitcoin's dominance index remains around 60%, indicating that BTC continues to attract the majority of market capital. In this context, Raoul Pal warns investors against chasing FOMO (fear of missing out). He emphasizes that altcoin divergence seasons are often high-risk periods, with profits concentrated in a small group. The current reality shows that this is not yet a full-blown altcoin season, but rather a selective phase where patience and risk management are crucial.
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