【Non-Farm Payroll Preview | Where Will the Crypto Market Go Under Employment Data?】

This Friday's non-farm payroll data is undoubtedly the focus of the market. Yesterday, although the U.S. first-quarter GDP seemed somewhat exaggerated, the market quickly realized that the “resilience” of the U.S. economy still exists. However, whether this resilience comes from real growth or is driven by short-term policy effects such as tariffs that promote domestic demand expansion remains to be confirmed.

From the perspective of the unemployment rate, the market expects it to remain at 4.2% this month, but I personally believe there is a certain upward risk, and it may rise to 4.3% or even 4.4%. The reason is simple: on the one hand, the Federal Reserve has already acknowledged the slowdown in economic growth; on the other hand, the latest PCE data shows that wage growth has already fallen, while household spending is still on the rise. This divergence indicates that consumption is being supported by savings, and once the marginal capacity of savings declines, the unemployment rate may rise rapidly.

If the unemployment rate does indeed increase in this Friday's non-farm payroll data, it will depend on whether the market chooses the optimistic trading logic of “bad news is fully priced in” or the risk-averse logic of “economic downturn.” If it is the latter, risk assets like BTC may be under pressure in the short term, but from a medium to long-term perspective, the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to release interest rate cut expectations in advance, thereby triggering “liquidity trading” again.

In other words, the logic of “bad data means good trading” is still valid; it just needs to be observed whether market sentiment can keep up.

For the cryptocurrency market, if the unemployment rate jumps, and non-farm payrolls fall short of expectations, while the market adopts the logic of “celebrating bad news,” BTC may re-test the $64,000 level and attempt to stabilize above previous highs. Conversely, if sentiment is bearish, it may be necessary to pay attention to the key support at $60,000.

Short-term Focus:

• Whether non-farm employment numbers are below expectations (<200k)

• Whether the unemployment rate is above 4.2%

• Whether market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year heat up in advance #加密市场反弹 $BTC