Readers often ask in the comment section: Is there still a market for altcoins coming up?
Regarding this issue, I have replied multiple times. I believe that a general altcoin bull market is probably hard to see again; however, a few valuable projects and valuable coins may still see a resurgence as the bull market rises.
This view is merely my own intuitive feeling, without much experience to follow and not supported by too much historical data.
However, recently, after reading the investment experience of a senior, I have gained a clearer understanding of this intuitive feeling.
This senior is a well-known investor on Xueqiu, nicknamed 'Retail Investor B'. He recorded his investment experience in A-shares from 2013 to 2023 in real-time on Xueqiu, then canceled his account on December 31, 2023, completely 'disappearing' from the online space.
He is a first-generation investor in A-shares, starting to invest in A-shares in 1991, experiencing various historical changes in A-shares and documenting its growth phases.
Although he canceled his account, fortunately, many attentive netizens on Xueqiu meticulously recorded all his statements and compiled them into a book, giving me the opportunity to read that history and broaden my horizons.
In his narrative, he vividly described the general bull market and structural bull market of A-shares.
When A-shares were just established, there were only dozens to hundreds of listed stocks.
At that time, regardless of what stocks were bought, regardless of how high the prices were, regardless of how badly they fell in later bear markets, as long as the next bull market came, they could all be salvaged.
Back then, A-shares were a market where bold investors could 'get rich quick'. Because the number of stocks that could be speculated on was too small, when a bull market came, after the leading stocks were driven too high, new players could only buy and dared to buy those cheaper stocks. Thus, for a period, A-shares were a market where as long as one could hold onto the stocks, even if they bought junk stocks, they could ultimately turn around and even make money.
At that time, every bull market encountered by A-shares was what we call a general bull market.
Does this phenomenon not resemble what we saw in the early years of the crypto ecosystem?
Only the retail investors who rushed into A-shares back then have now turned into today's retail investors rushing into the crypto ecosystem—year after year, the flowers are similar, but the people are different.
However, after 2000, especially after 2010, when the size of A-shares grew larger and the total market value reached trillions or even tens of trillions, it became increasingly difficult for general social funds, even institutional funds, to form that kind of general bull market. Even before the 2015 stock market crash, even when the whole society used financing and margin trading, it was still difficult to form a situation where junk stocks rose together.
In this situation, A-shares have hardly ever seen a general bull market again, only structural bull markets—where only individual sectors rise while many obscure sectors remain stagnant.
This phenomenon is not only in A-shares but also almost the same in Hong Kong stocks and US stocks. Especially in US stocks, during these years of long bull markets, only a few leading technology stocks have truly achieved significant increases, while a considerable number of stocks have remained stagnant.
Doesn't this resemble the situation we see in the crypto ecosystem today?
In this round of market trends, if we exclude the various skyrocketing meme coins and look at those old coins, isn't it true that apart from a very few projects that continue to build and have value support, most are essentially in a state of stagnation?
Following this line of thought further: among the newly emerged tokens in this round of market, how many will still have hope to rise again after this bubble bursts?
I believe the answer is self-evident.
So we should abandon the fantasy of a general altcoin season, carefully examine the tokens we currently hold, and dispose of or exchange those we believe are unpromising or lack potential, aiming to streamline and simplify as much as possible.
In the future, when we prepare to invest, especially when preparing to make heavy investments, we must be cautious and prudent.
#币安Alpha上新 #Strategy增持比特币 #特朗普税改
