At 8:30 PM Beijing time last night, the US first quarter GDP was announced. The market previously expected a growth of 0.3%, which is already a very low expectation given that last year's first quarter growth was 2.4%. The market's expectation of 0.3% indicates that it has already digested the impact of Trump's tariff policy. However, it was truly unexpected that the GDP data for the first quarter of this year in the US came out to be 0.3%, but there was a '-' in front, making it -0.3%.
US GDP did not grow but instead declined, and subsequently, the market plummeted. US stocks opened significantly lower, US bonds were sold off, yields surged, commodities expanded their losses, New York copper futures' decline widened to 6.5%, and oil prices approached the low of 8.
Seeing the market starting to sell off everything again, Trump came out to speak again.
I also noticed that Trump's tactics usually consist of two moves: the first, shifting blame, and the second, showing friendliness towards China.
This time, he first expressed that more and more companies are beginning to move to the United States, and the country will usher in prosperity, but we must rid ourselves of Biden's influence. The US economy's recession in the first quarter was caused by Biden (not my problem).
Moreover, the next quarter will also be affected by Biden (the economy will still be bad next quarter, but that’s not my problem either).
He really knows how to shift blame; I would like to honor Trump as the 'King of Blame.'
Later in the night, Trump again put away his facade and started expressing friendliness towards China.
This expression of friendliness towards China should be recognized as not Trump's true intention; he just wants to stabilize the market and say to other countries: 'Look, I have been trying to engage in dialogue with China, but China does not accept it, so this is no longer my problem.'
Then, in the early morning, Trump stated again that there are bigger stories to come, even bigger than tariffs.
Trump hinted that he would implement a significant domestic tax reduction policy, which once again stimulated the market, causing US stocks to surge right before the market closed.
Since then, Trump has successfully saved the market with his rhetoric once again.
The cryptocurrency market also saw a significant drop before recovering some losses. Personally, I was also hurt by this V-shaped trend, and I will slowly explain it to everyone in the next article.
From the performance over the past half month, it’s clear that Trump is very concerned about market performance. In his first hundred days, he has not achieved significant results, becoming the president with the lowest approval rating in the first hundred days in US history. If the capital market does not perform well again, he could really lose the midterm elections. Therefore, as long as the market is bad, Trump will definitely try to save it. Everyone shouldn’t panic, but they also shouldn’t expect too much. If the market performs a little better, Trump will come out and make a fuss, and he will definitely create some panic again.
The credibility of this worst president in a hundred days is gradually collapsing.