博雅看市
Frequent Trader
1.2 Years
公众号：博雅看市，围脖：Boya看市。曾任加拿大Swift Trade公司交易员，CCTV证券资讯频道《外汇市场》栏目特约嘉宾，魔鬼交易系统创始人
0 Following
611 Followers
608 Liked
73 Shared
See original
Case Solved: When the market drops, Trump will definitely come out to backtrack and save the market.
At 8:30 PM Beijing time last night, the US first quarter GDP was announced. The market previously expected a growth of 0.3%, which is already a very low expectation given that last year's first quarter growth was 2.4%. The market's expectation of 0.3% indicates that it has already digested the impact of Trump's tariff policy. However, it was truly unexpected that the GDP data for the first quarter of this year in the US came out to be 0.3%, but there was a '-' in front, making it -0.3%.
US GDP did not grow but instead declined, and subsequently, the market plummeted. US stocks opened significantly lower, US bonds were sold off, yields surged, commodities expanded their losses, New York copper futures' decline widened to 6.5%, and oil prices approached the low of 8.
US GDP did not grow but instead declined, and subsequently, the market plummeted. US stocks opened significantly lower, US bonds were sold off, yields surged, commodities expanded their losses, New York copper futures' decline widened to 6.5%, and oil prices approached the low of 8.
See original
Bitcoin either erupts in silence or turns downward in silence.
Flowers bloom again, but youth does not return. The sound of firecrackers announces the end of a person's life, while the mournful suona cannot express the sorrow of the world. Yesterday, I attended my great-aunt's funeral at the age of 92, which can be considered a natural end. However, when I saw my uncle forcefully break a clay pot and cry out for his mother, I could no longer control my emotions.
Let's all cherish the people in front of us and do some beneficial things within our abilities.
The market in the past few days has been as stagnant as the emotions of these days, 'lifeless'. The day before yesterday, it was mentioned that the daily divergence of Bitcoin was too large; either there would be a significant correction or a slight sideways adjustment. It has now been 48 hours of sideways movement, and the daily chart has seen the 8th overlapping candlestick. It is time for an explosion; either there will be a quick rally, or it will turn downward, as the saying goes, 'prolonged consolidation must lead to a drop.'
Let's all cherish the people in front of us and do some beneficial things within our abilities.
The market in the past few days has been as stagnant as the emotions of these days, 'lifeless'. The day before yesterday, it was mentioned that the daily divergence of Bitcoin was too large; either there would be a significant correction or a slight sideways adjustment. It has now been 48 hours of sideways movement, and the daily chart has seen the 8th overlapping candlestick. It is time for an explosion; either there will be a quick rally, or it will turn downward, as the saying goes, 'prolonged consolidation must lead to a drop.'
See original
Casual Gossip: Will Musk Meet a Bad End?
Today marks the 98th day since Trump regained power. In modern Chinese history, there's a 'Hundred Days Reform,' and Americans also care about the hundred-day milestone. After taking office, Trump first pressured Russia, then got involved with Zelensky, trying to fulfill his promise of achieving a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office; later, he focused on Panama and Greenland, applying pressure on neighboring countries; now, with the tariff war, it all boils down to making some achievements by this hundred-day mark.
As the biggest contributor to Trump's second rise to power, Musk, who was once seen as indispensable, now shows signs of decline.
As the biggest contributor to Trump's second rise to power, Musk, who was once seen as indispensable, now shows signs of decline.
See original
$SOL Practice has proved that the head and shoulders top pattern must fall below the neckline and then pull back to confirm. Once the neckline cannot be suppressed, it will evolve into a rectangular consolidation, and the reversal pattern will become a relay pattern in minutes.
See original
4.28 Market Analysis: Sol Head and Shoulders Formed, Will It Return to 133?
What Trump says now should not be taken too seriously; he just said he wants to significantly reduce tariffs on China, but yesterday he said, 'Unless China makes substantial concessions, tariffs on China will not be lifted.' From Trump's repeated statements, we can see that he does not actually care about China's countermeasures, but he does care about market performance, especially the US dollar and US bonds.
Last week, when US bonds were sold off and yields soared, he came out to say some soft words to soothe the market. In recent days, as US bond yields have started to decline, Trump feels he has regained his confidence and has begun to be tough again.
Last week, when US bonds were sold off and yields soared, he came out to say some soft words to soothe the market. In recent days, as US bond yields have started to decline, Trump feels he has regained his confidence and has begun to be tough again.
See original
$BTC If you can understand this article, will you still engage in this kind of high-profit trade? Will you still incur losses? Will you still face a margin call? No, definitely not #加密市场反弹
Why do I only pursue a 10% monthly return? (Get the textbook at the end of the article)
In the square of Binance, in the market of following trades, there are many with thousands of percent monthly return, such as:This following trade has achieved 20 times in a week.This 'expert' in the square achieved 500 times in 11 days.As an old trader who has been in this market for 18 years and has experienced various ups and downs, seeing this, I can't even smile anymore.First of all, is such a high return rate over a short period real? I can tell you, it is definitely real! Because in this market, there are always people who can achieve it, and they must be using high-leverage trading. The average volatility in the cryptocurrency market, combined with 100 times leverage, if you trade a small altcoin, you can double your money overnight; 100 times full warehouse means 100 times return.
See original
Why do I only pursue a 10% monthly return? (Get the textbook at the end of the article)
In the square of Binance, in the market of following trades, there are many with thousands of percent monthly return, such as:This following trade has achieved 20 times in a week.This 'expert' in the square achieved 500 times in 11 days.As an old trader who has been in this market for 18 years and has experienced various ups and downs, seeing this, I can't even smile anymore.First of all, is such a high return rate over a short period real? I can tell you, it is definitely real! Because in this market, there are always people who can achieve it, and they must be using high-leverage trading. The average volatility in the cryptocurrency market, combined with 100 times leverage, if you trade a small altcoin, you can double your money overnight; 100 times full warehouse means 100 times return.
See original
Unfortunately, not many people have read this article; otherwise, you would definitely have gone long with me instead of shorting and getting liquidated #加密市场反弹 #特朗普称无意解雇鲍威尔 .
China, Trump, the Federal Reserve: Who Will Compromise? The Covert Battle Between Trump and Powell
In the past two weeks, the world's attention has been drawn to Trump's global tariffs and the hard confrontation between China and the U.S., but there is another front that may have been overlooked, which is the confrontation between Trump and the Federal Reserve.
On April 9, at a time when U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar were all being hit hard, the Federal Reserve remained inactive, leaving the situation to worsen, forcing Trump to announce: tariffs will be suspended for 90 days.
On April 16, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered an unprecedented hawkish speech: he is bearish on the U.S. economy.
1. The inflation shock caused by tariffs has exceeded the Federal Reserve's highest expectations, and the Fed lacks sufficient experience to handle such high tariffs.
On April 9, at a time when U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar were all being hit hard, the Federal Reserve remained inactive, leaving the situation to worsen, forcing Trump to announce: tariffs will be suspended for 90 days.
On April 16, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered an unprecedented hawkish speech: he is bearish on the U.S. economy.
1. The inflation shock caused by tariffs has exceeded the Federal Reserve's highest expectations, and the Fed lacks sufficient experience to handle such high tariffs.
See original
I knew he would back down, but I really didn't expect him to back down so quickly!
The day before yesterday, I wrote an article discussing who would compromise between China, the Federal Reserve, and Trump.
However, this article did not give me any traffic, leading to very few people seeing it.
The article clearly concluded that only Trump could compromise, but I didn't expect this guy to compromise so quickly.
This morning, Trump made a series of statements:
1. The tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China will 'significantly' decrease from the current level of 145%, but the tariffs will not drop to zero. China will be very satisfied with the final tariff rate.
2. While frustrated by the Federal Reserve's failure to lower interest rates faster, I have no intention of firing Powell. 'I would like to see him be more proactive on rate cuts. Now is a great time for rate cuts. If he doesn’t cut rates, is it over? No, it’s not, but the timing is indeed good. It could have been done earlier. But I have no intention of firing him.
However, this article did not give me any traffic, leading to very few people seeing it.
The article clearly concluded that only Trump could compromise, but I didn't expect this guy to compromise so quickly.
This morning, Trump made a series of statements:
1. The tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China will 'significantly' decrease from the current level of 145%, but the tariffs will not drop to zero. China will be very satisfied with the final tariff rate.
2. While frustrated by the Federal Reserve's failure to lower interest rates faster, I have no intention of firing Powell. 'I would like to see him be more proactive on rate cuts. Now is a great time for rate cuts. If he doesn’t cut rates, is it over? No, it’s not, but the timing is indeed good. It could have been done earlier. But I have no intention of firing him.
See original
China, Trump, the Federal Reserve: Who Will Compromise? The Covert Battle Between Trump and Powell
In the past two weeks, the world's attention has been drawn to Trump's global tariffs and the hard confrontation between China and the U.S., but there is another front that may have been overlooked, which is the confrontation between Trump and the Federal Reserve.
On April 9, at a time when U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar were all being hit hard, the Federal Reserve remained inactive, leaving the situation to worsen, forcing Trump to announce: tariffs will be suspended for 90 days.
On April 16, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered an unprecedented hawkish speech: he is bearish on the U.S. economy.
1. The inflation shock caused by tariffs has exceeded the Federal Reserve's highest expectations, and the Fed lacks sufficient experience to handle such high tariffs.
On April 9, at a time when U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar were all being hit hard, the Federal Reserve remained inactive, leaving the situation to worsen, forcing Trump to announce: tariffs will be suspended for 90 days.
On April 16, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered an unprecedented hawkish speech: he is bearish on the U.S. economy.
1. The inflation shock caused by tariffs has exceeded the Federal Reserve's highest expectations, and the Fed lacks sufficient experience to handle such high tariffs.
See original
How can we seize today’s rise?
If you follow me and read my posts carefully, you will definitely be able to grasp today's rise.
First of all, when I posted the last technical analysis last Monday (April 14), I mentioned that if the closing price last weekend (that is, 8:00 this morning Beijing time) was closed at 83,000 or above, the weekly bottom pattern was established and stood above the 5-week moving average, then the weekly line would move up for a while, which would be at least several weekly K-lines, which means it would last for several weeks.
And the day before yesterday, in the article I wrote about my visit to Vietnam, I also mentioned at the end that the most dangerous time has passed.
First of all, when I posted the last technical analysis last Monday (April 14), I mentioned that if the closing price last weekend (that is, 8:00 this morning Beijing time) was closed at 83,000 or above, the weekly bottom pattern was established and stood above the 5-week moving average, then the weekly line would move up for a while, which would be at least several weekly K-lines, which means it would last for several weeks.
And the day before yesterday, in the article I wrote about my visit to Vietnam, I also mentioned at the end that the most dangerous time has passed.
See original
Just finished modifying the rules, C909 has entered the Vietnamese airline market.
From the outcomes achieved during this visit to Vietnam, has Vietnam really knelt to the U.S.?
Recently, during a critical moment of China's hard confrontation with the U.S. tariff war, there were widespread claims online that Vietnam had kneeled, and even discussions about Vietnam joining the U.S. to contain China. Some of this was Trump's wordplay, and some was Vietnam's bamboo diplomacy tricks.
What is circulating online is that Vietnam has lowered tariffs on American imports to 0, which is what Trump said. However, everyone has overlooked that Vietnam expressed mutual tariff reductions with the U.S. to 0. Vietnam has a significant trade surplus with the U.S.; mutual reductions to 0 would be more beneficial for Vietnam, right? This is also the fundamental reason the U.S. has never agreed to this. If it really happens, wouldn't Vietnam's crab business be booming even more?
What is circulating online is that Vietnam has lowered tariffs on American imports to 0, which is what Trump said. However, everyone has overlooked that Vietnam expressed mutual tariff reductions with the U.S. to 0. Vietnam has a significant trade surplus with the U.S.; mutual reductions to 0 would be more beneficial for Vietnam, right? This is also the fundamental reason the U.S. has never agreed to this. If it really happens, wouldn't Vietnam's crab business be booming even more?
See original
From the outcomes achieved during this visit to Vietnam, has Vietnam really knelt to the U.S.?
Recently, during a critical moment of China's hard confrontation with the U.S. tariff war, there were widespread claims online that Vietnam had kneeled, and even discussions about Vietnam joining the U.S. to contain China. Some of this was Trump's wordplay, and some was Vietnam's bamboo diplomacy tricks.
What is circulating online is that Vietnam has lowered tariffs on American imports to 0, which is what Trump said. However, everyone has overlooked that Vietnam expressed mutual tariff reductions with the U.S. to 0. Vietnam has a significant trade surplus with the U.S.; mutual reductions to 0 would be more beneficial for Vietnam, right? This is also the fundamental reason the U.S. has never agreed to this. If it really happens, wouldn't Vietnam's crab business be booming even more?
What is circulating online is that Vietnam has lowered tariffs on American imports to 0, which is what Trump said. However, everyone has overlooked that Vietnam expressed mutual tariff reductions with the U.S. to 0. Vietnam has a significant trade surplus with the U.S.; mutual reductions to 0 would be more beneficial for Vietnam, right? This is also the fundamental reason the U.S. has never agreed to this. If it really happens, wouldn't Vietnam's crab business be booming even more?
See original
The market is quiet, and various indicators may fail
In the past few days, the overall trend has been in a process of oscillation from the 4-hour chart to the daily chart. Both the volatility and trading volume have decreased significantly.
The volatility in the last week was only about 3000 points. In this situation, moving averages tend to converge, and the indicators of overbought and oversold are not obvious. Overall, both bulls and bears are evenly matched, and their fighting desire is gradually decreasing. This trend is unfavorable for both swing trading and trend trading.
In such a market, if you want to trade, you can only go back to the 5-minute chart for range trading. Do not chase highs and sell lows; otherwise, frequent losses will make you very uncomfortable.
In the past few days, the overall trend has been in a process of oscillation from the 4-hour chart to the daily chart. Both the volatility and trading volume have decreased significantly.
The volatility in the last week was only about 3000 points. In this situation, moving averages tend to converge, and the indicators of overbought and oversold are not obvious. Overall, both bulls and bears are evenly matched, and their fighting desire is gradually decreasing. This trend is unfavorable for both swing trading and trend trading.
In such a market, if you want to trade, you can only go back to the 5-minute chart for range trading. Do not chase highs and sell lows; otherwise, frequent losses will make you very uncomfortable.
See original
I didn't write about the market at all from the day before yesterday until yesterday afternoon, mainly because I messed things up for myself.
In the previous post, I mentioned that I would wait for 4 hours before making another pullback to continue trading. Since early yesterday morning, I have been repeatedly going long on BTC and ETH. However, because the 30M moving average bullish trend is not stable and has not diverged upwards, my confidence has also been insufficient, going back and forth, making a few points in profit or loss and then flat, until after 9 AM when I went long on BTC, ETH, and SOL again at 84700, 1623, and 128.6, aiming for a balanced approach.
I held it for a day, and I didn't exit in time around 86400 and 134. Finally, around 10 PM, the price came back, and I basically exited at break-even.
I held it for a day, and I didn't exit in time around 86400 and 134. Finally, around 10 PM, the price came back, and I basically exited at break-even.
See original
At 1:30 AM on $ETH , Powell delivered a sucker punch to the world.
At 1:30 AM today, Powell gave a speech at the Chicago Economic Club. Everyone originally thought that this guy would at least say a few soft words to calm the market, if not directly intervene to support it. This was because his colleague Waller had stated the day before: 'Support for earlier and larger rate cuts than previously expected.' Unexpectedly, Powell said we should wait for the situation to become clearer before considering any adjustments to the policy stance, which means it is not yet time to discuss rate cuts.
When asked whether there is a 'Fed put option' in the stock market (that is, if the stock market crashes, the Fed will step in), Powell's response was, 'Don't count on the Fed to bail you out.' Clearly, in the choice between supporting the economy or controlling inflation, Powell has chosen the latter.
It seems that Powell is determined to see this through, completely opposing the tax cuts. As market speculators, we need to give up on fantasies, prepare for the worst, and avoid being overly aggressive.
Actually, I also don't quite understand why this guy is being so tough now. During the 20-year mask period 😷, it was also during Trump's tenure, and he was very proactive in quantitative easing and market support, so this time it really feels a bit like watching old Trump being mocked.
At 1:30 AM today, Powell gave a speech at the Chicago Economic Club. Everyone originally thought that this guy would at least say a few soft words to calm the market, if not directly intervene to support it. This was because his colleague Waller had stated the day before: 'Support for earlier and larger rate cuts than previously expected.' Unexpectedly, Powell said we should wait for the situation to become clearer before considering any adjustments to the policy stance, which means it is not yet time to discuss rate cuts.
When asked whether there is a 'Fed put option' in the stock market (that is, if the stock market crashes, the Fed will step in), Powell's response was, 'Don't count on the Fed to bail you out.' Clearly, in the choice between supporting the economy or controlling inflation, Powell has chosen the latter.
It seems that Powell is determined to see this through, completely opposing the tax cuts. As market speculators, we need to give up on fantasies, prepare for the worst, and avoid being overly aggressive.
Actually, I also don't quite understand why this guy is being so tough now. During the 20-year mask period 😷, it was also during Trump's tenure, and he was very proactive in quantitative easing and market support, so this time it really feels a bit like watching old Trump being mocked.
See original
$SOL plans to set a stop-loss to protect the principal before sleeping. I haven't posted anything these past two days, as I've been fumbling around inside myself a couple of times, fortunately the losses aren't significant. I'll report back to everyone tomorrow. In two hours, Powell will speak, and the expected impact on the market will be considerable, so I'm cautiously holding my position.
See original
Sure enough, $ETH flattened very timely, $BTC 4 hours once again fell back, waiting to see if 82600 can hold up
Sure enough, it won't rise without a few likes, so I'll close it for now. The main thing is that the second position of $BTC still needs some tweaking; I'll wait for a pullback before entering again.
See original
Sure enough, it won't rise without a few likes, so I'll close it for now. The main thing is that the second position of $BTC still needs some tweaking; I'll wait for a pullback before entering again.
$ETH I've been so direct and no one likes it? If this post doesn't get more than a hundred likes, it definitely won't go viral 😂#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC
Login to explore more contents