博雅看市

👈 Left side or right side 👉❓
Many masters in the square often discuss whether to enter from the left side or the right side.
The left side usually involves anticipating the price in advance, entering before certain signals, which is a strategy of ambush. Generally, you can get a better price compared to entering from the right side, but there is also the risk of entering too early, as short-term trends can extend, leading to prolonged increases or decreases in the long-term, resulting in being trapped in a position.
The right side typically waits for a certain signal to appear, confirming a trend reversal or continuation, with the key point being confirmation. It is a strategy of confirming that the enemy's major force has dissipated before pursuing. However, there is also the possibility that the enemy gives you a false signal, making you swayed back and forth in the market.
So, what do you think, is the left side reliable or the right side reliable?
In fact, there is no clear distinction between left side 👈 and right side 👉. For example, last night’s entry at 2750-2760, from 1 to 4, can preliminarily confirm that a future rebound should be shorted, and the price is unlikely to reach new highs. The weak rebound from 4 to 3 is a confirmation signal, so entering at 2-3 can both be considered right side entries. However, looking solely at the movement from 4-3, entering at position 2 is considered left side since it anticipates in advance. Therefore, the distinction between left side and right side is not so easy to define, and the point of confirmation often occurs in an instant. If you get caught up in whether it's left side or right side, you are missing the point.
The correct approach is to classify the movements into levels. In the decline from 1 to 5, both 2-3 belong to the right side, and 3 is the critical confirmation point. What you need to enhance is your ability to judge critical points. The closer your entry is to the critical point, the stronger your skill, leading to smaller stop losses and higher returns. This is the point you should focus on.

$ETH
On the 10th, I wrote an article: "To Succeed in Trading, Forget About Yourself." Some may ask, what does it mean to forget about yourself?

This phrase may sound a bit abstract, but it is indeed a genuinely useful perspective. Forgetting about yourself doesn’t mean you don’t know who you are; rather, it means you should not focus your attention on your desires and fears.

We are involved in this industry because we are attracted to the beautiful vision of being able to make money easily in this market, which is fine. However, if our minds are filled with thoughts about whether this trade will be profitable (the worry about losing is actually also a concern for profitability), then we have lost sight of what is important. You will be led by your emotions, and you will become a slave to your feelings, making success impossible.

If your attention is not on yourself, then where should it be? Of course, it should be on the market trends themselves.

The image shows my daily homework; during major trading days, I always perform a market analysis, break down the price chart, and then think about all possible future trend classifications.
Having a complete categorization of trends allows you to know how to respond to each situation, so the trends won’t trap me, and I can handle them with ease.

When you don’t focus your attention on your emotions, you can clearly see the reality of the market and won't be fixated on how it must move. Just like yesterday with Ethereum, once the 4-hour chart doesn’t follow the standard trend and the classification of not making new highs comes out, you can follow the trend actively and respond accordingly, which led to a better outcome last night.

Of course, we are all human and have not evolved to a state where we can completely eliminate any emotions; that would be divine. In the beginning, we can start by being aware of our emotions, noticing when feelings of greed arise, and when we begin to feel fear. Recognizing their existence and then gradually ignoring them will lead to noticeable progress over time.

The 2520 take profit set by $ETH has been reached, and the position has been closed. The larger trend is not over, if you entered with me around 2750, you can hold it if you can. You can also set the stop loss at 2670 and hold it #山寨币ETF展望

$ETH When you forget yourself, you will become disciplined, and the market will respond to you in some way.

This turning point started for me the day before yesterday when I was making notifications in the square, but unfortunately, I didn't get much traffic at that time.
The drop last night, I started 'live broadcasting' in the square from yesterday afternoon. I am very clear that many people saw it this time, and if you started shorting because of my post yesterday, feel free to leave a message.
The notification for the double rise entry last night was also quite accurate. If you were paying attention, I believe you could seize the opportunity.
I don’t yet know how strong this drop will be, whether it will be a waterfall or a sideways market, but what I do know is that 2879 is the daily level turning point. After that, there will be at least three waves on the daily chart, with ups and downs, and now we are in the first segment down, which is not yet finished. I am temporarily holding with a stop loss to protect my capital, how about you? 1104791299861275224204

As mentioned yesterday, the ETH daily chart has shown a divergence in the upward trend. If the 4-hour midpoint is fully constructed, the probability of a larger divergence approaches 100%, and a major decline will begin.

Last night, Ethereum surged again, but was subsequently driven down. The strength of this pullback is quite significant, and the starting point from last night has been completely consumed, and this short-term pullback has not yet ended.

In this case, the second 4-hour midpoint's third segment is stronger than the previous two segments, suggesting there is a higher probability of another rally, but it won't break last night's high.
Next, we need to focus on how the 4-hour rebound ends. If it breaks last night's high, we will definitely short it without discussion; if it doesn't exceed 2879, then we need to short with a stop loss, and pay attention to whether the subsequent pullback can break today's low.

Moving forward, just keep an eye on the 30-minute chart, and after another drop, observe the strength of the rally.

To successfully trade $BTC , forget about yourself

Years of trading experience have taught me that if trading is to succeed, it must be after forgetting oneself.

Take yesterday's trading as an example. Yesterday, according to my trading plan, I shorted ETH at 2495, the lowest retracement was 2476, and then it surged. At this time, BTC's 30M chart was in a sideways reversal, because BTC's daily and 4-hour charts were both in a bullish trend, especially the 4-hour chart, which was in the second bullish position, very likely to break 106700 and surge again. So at 2495, I locked in my ETH position to break even, and at 105850, I reversed to go long on BTC, with a stop loss at 105200, a 650-point stop loss.

Some may ask, why not go long on ETH? Because at that time, the moving average system of ETH was still in a 4-30 bearish model, so even if it rises, I cannot go long in a bearish model; this is a principle. But BTC is different, both the daily and 4-hour charts are in a bullish trend, especially the 4-hour chart is in the second bullish position. Once the 30M chart shifts from bearish to bullish, the subsequent 4-30 will also return to the bullish mode, so it is in line with the rules to go long when the bottom sideways range breaks.

Subsequently, the price trend rose smoothly, quickly reaching 106800, breaking the previous high of 106700. At this time, when it retraced to 106600, my imagination came back. Would it fall again? Would profits be given back? Would it be better to close my position here and re-enter after a retracement?

Did you notice that at this moment, my mind was already devoid of market trends, and I had lost sight of my trading system and principles; all that remained was a desire for profit and a fear of loss. So, at that moment, I opened my phone and closed all my positions, allowing the price to ultimately rise to 110K. A big fish, I took a bite from the fish's head and then let it go.

This experience once again tells me that if one’s mind is filled with oneself during trading—one's desires, fears, pride, and others' opinions—then trading is bound to fail.

Let us encourage each other.

$SOL and Ethereum are the same, there is a rebound every four hours, and here at least there will be a 30-minute level pullback. Will it evolve into a four-hour wave (which is one move on the daily chart)? This depends on the continuation of the subsequent decline. Regardless, the bulls are at risk here.
If it really goes down to a daily move, then the daily chart will inevitably turn bearish, and the second position consolidation indicates that a larger level is brewing.

$BTC BTC mentioned yesterday that the resistance level in the 106100-106700 area was blocked. The previous central low point was just 15 points short of reaching it, so we temporarily view this as the end of the 4-hour rebound.

Because 106482 previously formed a central point on the 30M chart, this central point disrupted the earlier 4-hour central point, which means we need to continue with the daily chart, either with a 4-hour consolidation downward or a 4-hour downtrend.

At the current position, the moving average system is still not suitable for short positions, the 30M has not turned bearish, and the 4-hour is also building a bullish second position. The structure and moving average system are inconsistent here, so short positions can also be avoided. Based on the structure, if entering a short position, the stop loss should be set at 106500. If the 30M moving average turns bearish later, we can add to the position, accompanied by a trailing stop loss.

$ETH ETH, last night the third attack on 2550 failed, the 4-hour moving average continues to maintain a bearish arrangement, and signs of a trend reversal have appeared on the 30M chart. The price has fallen below the moving average on the 30-minute chart, and the moving average is about to form a death cross.

If the price remains below the 30M moving average for two hours, the moving average will form a death cross, and a bearish double top position will appear in the 4-30 range. Then we need to short again according to the model, looking at the low point of the day before yesterday at 2380, with a stop loss at the high point of 2550 in the early morning.

From May 14, $ETH ETH has been oscillating around the central range of 2460-2740, and this is still ongoing. During this process, a triangle formation briefly occurred, but it was later broken.

Since it is still oscillating around the central range of 2460-2740, we will treat it as a consolidation. As for whether it will go up or down after the consolidation, we will consider that once it breaks out of this range upwards or downwards; we should not make premature predictions.

The pullback level from points 7-8 in the chart is insufficient, with a small to large reversal occurring at position 8. For now, we view 8 as an upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Currently, the 26 moving average is providing resistance. In the short term, based on the bullish trend on the 1-hour and 30-minute charts, we continue to look for long positions. If there is a follow-up rise here, a 4-hour upward movement may emerge, with the overall 4-hour decline from 7 viewed as a consolidation reversal. If it goes down from here, we can only look at the 30-minute level for now.

Therefore, upward movement may be on the 4-hour level, while downward movement is on the 30-minute level. For now, we still look for a rebound; if it goes down first, we will treat it as a second test of the bottom starting from 7.

$BTC BTC, Head and Shoulders Top? Or is the correction over?

From the pattern perspective, the BTC daily head and shoulders top is about to complete. If it truly forms a head and shoulders top, according to the measured distance of the pattern, the subsequent drop target is in the 90-91K range, which offers a very considerable profit space.

From a structural standpoint, 0-3 is a daily lower consolidation divergence, and 3-4 has a relatively strong rebound. There are two possible evolutions going forward:

1. If 3 starts to rise at the same level as 0-3, then 4 must break through 1 and 2, which is 106700;
2. If 4 does not rebound to 1, it forms a third type of selling point, then a secondary bottom test, followed by expansion (continued consolidation);

Therefore, whether it can break through 2 is quite critical. 106100-106700 is a key resistance level.

In the 4-hour chart, this rebound has reattached to the moving average, and if it consolidates sideways, the moving average will turn bullish. Thus, personally, I will first layout according to the first classification and then see if it can successfully break through 2. If it breaks through, treat it as a large-level upward trend; if it cannot break through, treat it as a fluctuating downward trend.

Additionally, the confirmation of the head and shoulders top requires breaking below the neck line and not being able to stand above the neck line on a pullback. Currently, the neck line position is at 100300, which is also close to the 100K integer level. If this position is not effectively broken, the head and shoulders top is merely a prediction, and currently, going short is still a left-side entry strategy.

$BTC BTC is a key point tonight!

After a period of weak fluctuating rebound, although the moving averages on the 4-hour chart of BTC are in a bearish arrangement, the 26 moving average has started to move upwards, and the price is currently near the lower boundary of the recent upward oscillation, which is a key node for a trend change.

If there is a rebound at the lower support position, it will lead to a golden cross in the moving averages, then the weak fluctuating upward trend will turn into an accelerated rise; if the support lower boundary is broken, we need to wait for a rebound to confirm that support turns into resistance before switching to a short position.

Therefore, the current lower support position is a very critical trend change node, and today we need to increase our attention to it.

$SOL Sol may go back to 100!

On Monday morning, after the weekly K-line closed, Sol's weekly chart completed the formation of a top reversal, and the closing price was 157.62, while the 5-week moving average was at 164.7. The closing was below the 5-week line, so after the weekly line peaked at 187.67, it is highly likely that the weekly chart will make a downward move. A downward move will inevitably lead to the formation of a bottom reversal, and now that the top reversal has just formed, there will still need to be a downward central area constructed before reaching a new low. This weekly line has only just moved down by about 30% to 40%, and it is far from over.

Therefore, according to this idea, the next step is to rebound and go short; the 5-week line remains a strong resistance in the 164-168 area.

The only situation that can break this weekly downward classification is if the price again attacks 164 in the next couple of days and then falls back to stabilize above 160; in that case, the shorts will not be taken, or it will turn into a long position afterward. Otherwise, the short strategy will continue.

Last night there was originally an opportunity, but the bulls were weak; 164 was directly pushed back to 154. It was strong but not lasting, which is also not good.

$ETH got it right again this time

$BTC
The BTC daily chart has pulled back a bit, but the lowest point did not break last week's low, which means that the weekly top reversal pattern did not form. Therefore, the recent daily decline has ended at 103K. It can be said that 103K is the recent lowest point, and the next wave will continue to attack the historical high of 112K.

What to do is up to you.

$SOL Sol has been following the rhythm of BTC these days. Yesterday, there was a surge, but it did not break through the previous high and is still maintaining a sideways consolidation at the daily level.

On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands have flattened. The current range is between 170.6 and 179.7. Yesterday, it touched the upper band and then retraced, currently falling back to the middle band. From the recent trend, the support at the Bollinger middle band is limited, and the price usually needs to touch the lower band before stopping the decline.

Considering the current bullish trend on the daily chart, the price is showing an upward running pattern, and we should continue to maintain a bullish outlook.

It would be best to wait for the price to retrace to the 170-171 area to enter the market. The 26-day moving average is at 168, and I believe the extreme position should be around 168. The entry area can be expanded to 168-171, and the stop-loss position can be set around 165. Currently, we need to be patient and wait.