Event Review 🔔
In a recent round of severe volatility, the price of Ethereum (ETH) was fixed at $1815 around 20:00, quickly dropping and breaching key support levels in a short time. Continuous selling pressure in the market led to a rapid decline from $1815 to $1744 within 111 minutes, with an overall drop of nearly 4%. In the following two hours, ETH further slid to $1731, with a cumulative decline of 4.64%, showing a sharp shift in market sentiment. At 22:15, although there was a technical rebound, with the price rising to around $1760.3, the overall oscillating pattern has not yet stabilized, leaving investors facing significant uncertainty.
Timeline ⏰
20:00 – ETH price fixed at $1815. At this time, the market is impacted by negative macro news from the U.S. Q1 GDP negative growth, declining core PCE data, and a significant drop in U.S. stocks, leading to a surge in capital risk-averse sentiment.
20:00 to 21:51 – In just 111 minutes, the ETH price plummeted from $1815 to $1744, during which large short positions and institutional fund reallocations triggered the breach of technical support.
20:00 to 22:00 – The overall downward trend continued, with the price dropping to $1731, a decline of 4.64%, indicating an escalation of the market chain reaction.
22:15 – After a brief rebound, ETH price rose to $1760.3, but there remains a significant gap from the opening price.
Reason Analysis 💥
Macroeconomic and Policy Factors
U.S. Q1 GDP data unexpectedly showed negative growth, combined with a decline in core PCE price data, signaling a slowdown in economic growth.
U.S. stocks opened significantly lower and risk-averse sentiment rose, leading to a decrease in overall risk appetite and adjustments in high-risk assets (like cryptocurrencies).
Institutional Heavyweights and Technical Operations
Several large short orders and whales have significantly adjusted their positions in critical areas (such as around $94,900), leading to a noticeable change in fund flows in the market in the short term.
ETF capital flows and institutional strategy adjustments have further intensified short-term market volatility, with the breach of technical support levels triggering a chain reaction of selling.
Technical Analysis 📊
(Data based on Binance USDT perpetual 45-minute candlesticks)
Price Action and Bollinger Bands
ETH is currently moving along the lower Bollinger Band, indicating oversold signs, with the market overall showing a weak trend.
Moving Average System and KDJ Indicator
From the MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and EMA5 to EMA120 moving averages, the price is consistently below all moving averages, which are in a bearish arrangement, indicating that the downward trend in the short, medium, and long term continues.
The KDJ indicator has gradually converged, suggesting a weakening of current trend momentum, but technical correction still needs confirmation.
Trading Volume and Large Order Data
In the past hour, the total amount of large orders across the network reached $10 million, with long positions accounting for 82%, indicating significant internal selling pressure in the market.
At the same time, large transaction data shows a net outflow of $20 million in major funds, further confirming continuous selling pressure.
MACD and TD Price Reversal
The MACD histogram continues to decrease, indicating that the downward momentum remains strong.
Meanwhile, a local bullish TD price reversal signal has appeared, which may be an early indication of trend change, but a fundamental reversal still requires more evident data support.
Market Outlook 🔮
Currently, although ETH showed a technical rebound at 22:15, the overall price remains at a low level. Macroeconomic factors, institutional operations, and technical indicators all suggest that market risk sentiment has not dissipated. The future trend may present the following scenarios:
Short-term consolidation: If risk-averse sentiment persists, ETH may hover around the lower support level (approximately the $1730 to $1750 range), awaiting clear signals from macro data or institutional reallocations.
Reversal Opportunity Development Stage: The engulfing candlestick pattern and TD price reversal in the technical analysis suggest potential bullish signals, but the trend change will only have higher reliability if accompanied by increased trading volume.
Risks and Opportunities Coexist: If positive macro news or institutional capital warming occurs, it could trigger a rebound. However, at this stage, investors should remain cautious, manage their positions appropriately, and closely monitor changes in macroeconomic data and market capital flows.
Overall, ETH is currently in a phase of severe volatility interwoven with market panic. Investors should balance technical indicators with macro fundamentals when operating, adhere to strict risk management strategies, and avoid falling into unnecessary risks due to short-term emotional fluctuations.