Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently revealed that the four major U.S. brokerages—Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and UBS—will open customer trading and allocation of Bitcoin spot ETFs by the end of 2025. (Background: Arthur Hayes' latest interview: Bitcoin and Ethereum have completed the bottom formation, where will the new liquidity come from? How to select targets at this stage?) (Additional background: Standard Chartered Bank predicts: Bitcoin's target price for 2025 is $200,000) The Chief Investment Officer of crypto asset management firm Bitwise, Matt Hougan, expects that by the end of this year, the four major U.S. wirehouses managing trillions of dollars in assets will open trading permissions for Bitcoin spot ETFs for their clients, which is expected to bring record net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. How many clients do the four major brokerages have? According to a report by The Block, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently stated that he anticipates that the four major full-service brokerage dealers—Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and UBS—will 'open for business' before the end of 2025, allowing their financial advisors to allocate Bitcoin spot ETFs for clients. The four major brokerages collectively manage over $10 trillion in client assets, and their involvement is seen as a key step for Bitcoin ETFs to enter the mainstream investment field. Since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first Bitcoin spot ETFs for listing in early 2024, despite attracting significant attention and initial capital inflows, the primary buyer groups have been independent registered investment advisors (RIAs) and retail investors; large brokerage platforms have yet to grant their clients access to these new products due to strict internal due diligence processes and compliance considerations. Hougan noted that the addition of these large platforms could increase the accessibility of Bitcoin ETFs approximately fourfold. Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has also expressed similar views, believing that the adoption by large brokerage platforms is one of the two major catalysts for future fund inflows into Bitcoin ETFs (the other being the development of ETF-based options products). Bitcoin bull market delayed but expectations remain unchanged. It is worth noting that the timeline for large brokerages to accept Bitcoin ETFs seems to be later than initially expected. Hougan himself and analysts like Balchunas had previously anticipated that the approval of the first brokerage platforms might occur in the first half of 2024. The reality is that the internal approval processes of these large institutions are more complex and time-consuming than anticipated. Hougan described it as a process that needs to pass through a series of 'small passageways' for much of the wealth management funds in the U.S. to invest in these new products. These processes involve risk assessments, compliance reviews, investor suitability analyses, and providing relevant training and tools for financial advisors. Despite the delay, Hougan remains confident in achieving breakthroughs before the end of the year. He expects that once these internal barriers are cleared, these platforms will gradually open trading permissions for Bitcoin ETFs. Initially, we thought we were only a few weeks, or even a week, away from the first major brokerage approval. (2024/03) Optimistic about 2025 fund inflows: Latecomer strength may create records. Based on expectations for the upcoming entry of large brokerages, Matt Hougan has made an optimistic forecast for fund inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in 2025. He believes that although the inflow rate from the beginning of 2025 to now has slowed compared to the same period in 2024, he still expects that by the end of 2025, the cumulative net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs will reach a historical high. Hougan even previously (February 2025) predicted that the total inflow for 2025 could exceed $50 billion. He compared the growth trajectory of Bitcoin ETFs to gold ETFs, which doubled their annual inflow in the second year (2005) after launching in 2004. He believes that as institutional investors increase their allocations to Bitcoin and traditional wealth management channels open up, Bitcoin ETFs are also likely to welcome a second wave of even stronger capital influx. Recently, Standard Chartered Bank has also raised its Bitcoin price target for this year, with analysts believing it could reach $120,000, and Bernstein has made a more positive estimate, still believing Bitcoin could reach $200,000 this year, as institutions make positive forecasts for Bitcoin's outlook in the second half of the year.

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