Why I say that from a macro perspective, the bull market is still ongoing, and Bitcoin and altcoins still have a wave of main upward momentum

Let’s start with the conclusion: now (April) to mid-year (June) is the best time to dollar-cost average into quality coins, and there is a high probability of a strong rise around mid-year. Currently, the cost-effectiveness of bottom-fishing is extremely high.

Next, I will demonstrate the correctness of this conclusion from the perspectives of the global M2 and BTCcoin relationship; altcoin scoring index; Bitcoin market share; and USDT dominance, etc.

Global M2 refers to the total money supply of various countries around the world, reflecting the total scale of cash in circulation, demand deposits, time deposits, and other highly liquid financial assets. This indicator is often used to measure the degree of looseness in the global monetary environment and the liquidity level of the economy.

Historically, when global M2 grows, Bitcoin prices tend to follow that growth.

As shown in the figure below, in 2017, a similar adjustment occurred due to the same response to Trump's policies (the dollar strengthened, interest rates rose, followed by a reversal). After the adjustment, with the increase of global M2, Bitcoin continued to rise.

Figure 1

Returning to the current Bitcoin trend, from September to December 2024, initially due to the presidential election and positive expectations for Bitcoin as a national reserve, Bitcoin rose from 60K to nearly 110K.

Figure 2

After December, as expectations were realized, the dollar strengthened and interest rates rose, cryptocurrencies would still be affected by liquidity tightening, and Bitcoin subsequently fell sharply. However, this trend has almost ended, financial conditions are rapidly easing, M2 is returning to new highs, and it is expected that Bitcoin will have another main upward wave or a strong rise in a few months (I personally expect it will adjust to July).