It seems that the market is following my script, just as we analyzed on the 22nd. This wave of market movement is likely to hit a new high, and at the very least, it will trigger the stop losses of the bears. BTC has reached 97,000, and next we will wait for ETH to lead the altcoins in a wave of catch-up, giving everyone a sign that a bull market is coming, making them unable to resist FOMO-ing in, which can then lead to a dump.

What to do next? I suggest a "simple and brutal" approach: once BTC shows a long upper shadow or starts to show bearish candles, consider selling a portion to reduce your position. Even if you sell too early and miss out on a later surge, you will be acting at a very cost-effective position, with relatively low risk.

Wasn't there a time before when it surged, but failed to break the new high and turned back? However, the pullback didn't drop below the previous low, and it was quickly pushed back up. This indicates that the current strategy is still the same: first, create a wave of FOMO (fear of missing out) to attract people to jump in, creating the illusion that "the bull market has arrived", and then take the opportunity to dump.

The key date to focus on is May 7th, because on that day two significant events will occur simultaneously: the major upgrade of Ethereum and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. Both of these news items will have a considerable impact on the market, and can basically be seen as the barometer for May's market movement.

If the market intends to continue its upward surge, it needs to start gaining momentum before the good news hits. If it doesn't break out now, by the time the good news actually arrives, it might be too late.

Currently, mainstream websites predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25% on May 7th, but on Polymarket, a platform where real money is wagered, most of the big bets are on "no rate cut", with total bets exceeding $30 million. This is a significant signal, indicating that real capital does not believe there will be a short-term easing.

Conversely, I think that not cutting rates may not necessarily be a bad thing. Why? Because everyone is anticipating good news, and once that expectation is dashed, the panic will dissipate, allowing the market to relax, which might actually create an opportunity for a rebound.

If rates are indeed cut, the market may rally in anticipation, but once the news lands, it will start to adjust. This scenario might see a few days of gains, followed by a period of consolidation or even a pullback, before slowly moving in a new direction. So whether or not there is a rate cut, the market has its own "script" arranged.