#特朗普就职百日 (Key Events to Watch in the Crypto Market in the Coming Weeks)

The recent trend in the crypto market is dominated by external factors, especially macroeconomics, policies, and the performance of the US stock market. Below are the key events that may affect the market in the coming weeks, analyzed in three parts:

1. Macroeconomic Data (Focus on the United States)

1. March PCE Data (April 30) - The inflation indicator most valued by the Federal Reserve; if core PCE exceeds expectations, it may strengthen rate hike expectations, negatively impacting the market; conversely, it may relieve pressure.

2. April Non-Farm Payroll Data (May 2) - Reflects the initial impact of Trump's tariff policy. Strong employment may boost the dollar, while weak data could exacerbate market volatility. Current expectations are leaning conservative.

3. FOMC Meeting (May 7) - Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, but Powell's statements are key. The market is focused on his interpretation of inflation and the economy, especially the policy signals following the tariff war.

4. April CPI Data (May 13) - The tariff war may lead to price increases for goods, but panic buying may distort data in the short term, requiring comprehensive judgment in conjunction with other indicators.

5. April Retail Sales Data (May 15) - Changes in consumer behavior may affect data; if it contradicts employment and CPI, it could trigger market divergence. Note: Economic data from countries like China and Japan should also be monitored to some extent, but the market is more focused on US policies and data as guidance for Federal Reserve decisions.

2. US Stock Earnings Season (Impact on Risk Sentiment)

- Tech giants like Tesla, Google, Microsoft, and Apple will successively announce Q1 earnings (April 22 - May 1).

- If performance or outlook falls short of expectations, it may drag down US stocks and transmit to the crypto market, especially regarding corporate statements on tariff costs.

3. Policy and Regulatory Dynamics

1. New SEC Chair Takes Office - Paul Atkins, nominated by Trump, is seen as more friendly towards cryptocurrency, potentially promoting a more relaxed regulatory environment.

2. SEC Crypto Roundtable - April 25 (Custody Issues), May 12 (Asset Tokenization), June 6 (DeFi), the discussion directions may indicate future regulatory priorities.

3. Stablecoin Legislative Process - The US plans to complete legislation by August, aiming to strengthen dollar supremacy; if implemented, it may benefit compliant stablecoins and related ecosystems.