#空投防骗手册 (Key Events to Watch in the Crypto Market in the Coming Weeks)

The recent trends in the crypto market are dominated by external factors, especially macroeconomics, policies, and the performance of the US stock market. Below are the key events that may impact the market in the coming weeks, analyzed in three parts:

1. Macroeconomic Data (Focus on the US)

1. March PCE Data (April 30) - The inflation indicator most valued by the Federal Reserve. If core PCE exceeds expectations, it may strengthen rate hike expectations, putting downward pressure on the market; conversely, if it falls short, it may alleviate pressure.

2. April Non-Farm Payroll Data (May 2) - Reflects the initial impact of Trump's tariff policy. Strong employment may boost the dollar, while weak data could exacerbate market volatility. Current expectations are leaning towards conservatism.

3. FOMC Meeting (May 7) - Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, but Powell's statements are key. The market is focused on his interpretations of inflation and the economy, especially the policy signals after the tariff war.

4. April CPI Data (May 13) - The tariff war may lead to rising prices for goods, but panic buying could distort the data in the short term, requiring a comprehensive judgment with other indicators.

5. April Retail Sales Data (May 15) - Changes in consumer behavior may affect the data. If it contradicts employment and CPI data, it may lead to market divergences. Note: Economic data from countries like China and Japan should also be moderately monitored, but the market is more focused on how US policies and data guide the Federal Reserve's decisions.

2. US Earnings Season (Impact on Risk Sentiment)

- Tech giants like Tesla, Google, Microsoft, and Apple will successively announce their Q1 earnings reports (April 22 - May 1).

- If performance or outlook falls short of expectations, it may drag down US stocks and transmit to the crypto market, especially paying attention to companies' statements on tariff costs.

3. Policy and Regulatory Dynamics

1. New SEC Chairman Takes Office - Trump's nominee Paul Atkins is seen as more friendly to cryptocurrencies, which may promote a more lenient regulatory environment.

2. SEC Crypto Roundtable - April 25 (custody issues), May 12 (asset tokenization), June 6 (DeFi), the discussion direction may indicate future regulatory priorities.

3. Stablecoin Legislation Process - The US plans to complete legislation before August, aiming to strengthen the dollar's dominance. If implemented, it may benefit compliant stablecoins and related ecosystems.