#SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批 (Key Events to Watch in the Crypto Market in the Coming Weeks)

The recent trends in the crypto market have been dominated by external factors, particularly macroeconomic conditions, policies, and the performance of the US stock market. Below are key events in the coming weeks that may affect the market, analyzed in three parts:

1. Macroeconomic Data (Focus on the United States)

1. March PCE Data (April 30) - The inflation indicator most valued by the Federal Reserve. If core PCE exceeds expectations, it may strengthen rate hike expectations, negatively impacting the market; conversely, if it falls short, it could relieve pressure.

2. April Non-Farm Payroll Data (May 2) - Reflects the initial impact of Trump's tariff policy. Strong employment could boost the dollar, while weak data may exacerbate market volatility. Current expectations lean towards conservatism.

3. FOMC Meeting (May 7) - Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, but Powell's statements are key. The market is focused on his interpretation of inflation and the economy, especially the policy signals after the tariff war.

4. April CPI Data (May 13) - The tariff war may lead to rising prices for goods, but panic buying could cause short-term distortions in the data, requiring a comprehensive assessment with other indicators.

5. April Retail Sales Data (May 15) - Changes in consumer behavior may affect the data; if it conflicts with employment and CPI, it could trigger market divergences. Note: Economic data from countries like China and Japan should also be monitored, but the market is more focused on US policies and data guiding the Fed's decisions.

2. US Earnings Season (Impact on Risk Sentiment)

- Tech giants like Tesla, Google, Microsoft, and Apple will successively announce Q1 earnings (April 22 - May 1).

- If performance or outlook falls short of expectations, it may drag down US stocks and transmit to the crypto market, particularly focusing on companies' statements regarding tariff costs.

3. Policy and Regulatory Dynamics

1. New SEC Chair Takes Office - Trump's nominee Paul Atkins is considered more friendly towards cryptocurrencies, which may promote a more lenient regulatory environment.

2. SEC Crypto Roundtable - April 25 (Custody Issues), May 12 (Asset Tokenization), June 6 (DeFi), discussions may indicate future regulatory focuses.

3. Stablecoin Legislation Process - The US plans to complete legislation by August, aiming to strengthen dollar dominance; if implemented, it may benefit compliant stablecoins and related ecosystems.