Never trust on-chain data and news

When I post, there are often people who tell me how much the whales bought or sold, or what BlackRock and MicroStrategy are doing. You need to understand one thing: how many of these data points that you can see are true, and how many are false? Moreover, in the crypto world, how many people don't look at this data? If trading based on data could lead to success, then there wouldn't be so many retail traders in the crypto space; everyone would be a success. So those things are just for reference, don't take them too seriously; trading still requires your own market feel and skills.

Many people find my posts a bit confusing. Sometimes I say it's going to fall, and sometimes I say it's going to rise. Perhaps I haven't expressed myself clearly. I will reiterate: when I say bullish, I mean a short-term rise, just like now. Since there hasn't been any selling at 95,000, I am bullish. However, May is approaching, especially with the interest rate meeting coming up, I am bearish. In other words, even if it rises to 96,000 or 98,000, the short-term rise doesn't change the fact that there will be a significant drop in May. No matter at what position, there will be a big drop; that's the point.

Lastly, I want to say that the fluctuation of K-line is normal, and opinions can change with buying and selling. It's not that rising means bullish and falling means bearish; rather, after a rise, if there is selling, one should turn bearish. If there is no selling, one should continue to be bullish. The key is where the main force chooses to sell, which is impossible to predict. This is the most basic logic in trading: predictions are just predictions; actual selling is the standard for judgment. Just like initially I predicted a drop at 86,000 and expected a significant drop there, but I found that there was no selling at 86,000, so I turned bullish from 86,000 to 89,000. Indeed, it reached 89,000. After reaching 89,000, there was still no selling, so I forecasted 92,000. It reached 94,000. I was continuously bullish during this period without making any mistakes, but that does not mean it won't drop significantly.