分析师董势涨

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Is BTC a trap for bulls or a strong breakout?

Hello everyone, I am analyst Dong Shizhang. Yesterday, BTC broke through the flag structure of the hourly downward channel, reaching a maximum of around 108500. Last night, BTC again approached 107200, and it did not break below the downward channel line, then there was a strong breakout, surpassing the previous high, reaching 108700. So, is this round of BTC's movement a trap for bulls or a strong rise?

Currently, from a technical structure standpoint, the general direction is still bullish, but will it pull back first or rise first? We need to watch BTC's specific direction. If BTC can drop to around 107000 today, it would indicate that BTC has formed two bottoms, allowing for a long position to be established in this area. If BTC then breaks above with a bullish candle, reaching above 109000, that level could potentially be a significant trap for bulls, knocking out the bears. I suggest considering a short position here. If there is a pullback, there should also be a profit of around 2000-3000 USD.

The above views are for reference only and should not be the basis for trading decisions. A friendly reminder: profits and losses are your own responsibility!

Brothers, I have found myself in a sharp position again
ETH highest 2463.96, my entry point 2463, less than one dollar difference

The trading strategy for ETH has arrived
Brothers who don't know how to trade, come and take a look

First, layout a short position when ETH is pulled to around 2450-2470, with a stop loss set at 2490.
Second: Wait for ETH to break through and stabilize above 2520 to chase the rise, with a stop loss leaving 30 points.
Third: Wait for ETH to pull back to around 2388 to open a long position, with additional buying set at 2350, and a stop loss leaving 30 points.
Fourth, wait for ETH to drop below 2300 and not bounce back to short, with a stop loss leaving 30 points upward.

The above is the operational strategy for ETH, a friendly reminder, do not open positions in the middle range, the above are key supports and resistances, following this logic in trading can greatly enhance the win rate.

BTC has not yet shown direction
Doing this can be steady as an old dog

First: If BTC rises to around 107800-108000, you can set up a short position, with a stop loss at 108300 (based on stabilization, be careful of false breakouts)
Second: Wait for BTC to break through and stabilize above 108300 to chase the rise, leaving a stop loss of 1000 points.
Third: When the market pulls back to 104500, you can chase long, and you can choose to add positions at 103500. Stop loss at 103000 (based on breaking down and not stabilizing)

Following these three points, according to this operation, you can basically eat meat steadily. Do not operate in other ranges, do not participate, do not act blindly, do a good job of stopping losses, and there should be no problem!

This dog market
is really hard to grasp

Although I have been doing well in the recent swings and basically making profits, I have to admit that this dog market is really hard to grasp. Key positions have broken down and then rebounded. BTC first dropped to 106700 and rebounded, then to 106500 and rebounded, and then to 106300 and rebounded. There is no technical logic at all; it's killing the technical traders. Support and resistance levels are completely useless. Of course, shorting is not a problem; shorting is almost always profitable, but it's quite difficult to go long. ETH is the same; there is no logic at all. I estimate that many retail investors have lost quite a bit of money recently, mainly because the big players are really too dog-like!

Get up early in the morning and stir-fry a little base first, comfortable😌

Is BTC going south or north
106700 is a crucial position

Currently, BTC has reached around 108200, encountering resistance and starting to pull back. So is 108200 the high point this time, or will it continue to rise after the pullback? Here, we need to focus on the price of 106700. If this pullback can hold above 106700, then BTC is likely to push forward, breaking through the resistance level of 108900, and thereafter we should look towards new highs of 120000, 130000. However, if it breaks below 106700 and cannot reclaim this position, then BTC will start to plummet, potentially dropping below 98000 and heading towards around 95000. Why is the position of 106700 so critical?

Looking back through history, you will find that breaking below 106700 usually leads to a waterfall decline, while breaking above 106700 typically results in a significant rise. Therefore, you will notice that the support and resistance at 106700 is very strong; it's not easy to break through, nor is it easy to fall below. This is a key position, so everyone can pay attention to this level. If it breaks below, you can short; if it holds, you can go long!

Brothers watching the live stream
You decide if the points are accurate!

Yesterday, the live stream clearly told everyone that ETH would go to 2500 today, and this morning it immediately reached 2520, completely in line with my expectations. It really made a rebound today. Friends in the live stream room, can you reply to me, was it accurate?

This morning, our supplementary short position was at 2518, completely in line with my prediction, peaking at 2520, only a $2 difference, really perfect!

Not missing any low buys or high shorts, really comfortable!

Tonight's low and high altitude all eaten, so comfortable 😌

Continue to eat pin insertion with the brothers
This time it's only a difference of 5 dollars

Today's ETH Spike Orders
Everyone is making profits again

ETH reached a high of 2450, our entry price was 2448, the lowest was 2405, and we have already made over 40 dollars in profit, with my pending order price just 2 dollars apart, it's really perfect!

Points for Everyone
Again, it's the meat at 1600 points

Last night before going to bed, I reminded everyone that if it holds above 1044, we should mainly go long, and if it doesn't hold, we should mainly go short. This morning, the market surged and broke through 1044 with increased volume. At this position, one can confidently chase a long position because the upper pressure is around 106400, and one can take profit around 106000. The 1600-point meat was perfectly captured! Then at this position, we placed a short order, making a profit from both sides. We placed a short order at 105600, and we have already made a small profit. If the position at 106500 can break through, we can layout a long position again.

I don't know how many early risers got to enjoy the profit; I didn't because I woke up at noon at 12 o'clock and missed the long positions...

BTC has reached a critical watershed again
Key price battle at 106500

BTC has formed an M pattern at high levels, and a drop below 100,000 would be considered a valid breakdown, leading to a continued sharp decline. However, this M pattern has now been retracted, and the downward trend has not truly formed yet. Currently, BTC is back around 106,000, which is a crucial level. The daily chart has attempted to break through the 106500-106800 range twice; this range coincides with the key price of the Bollinger Band's middle line. A stable breakthrough would lead to new highs, while failure would result in a significant retreat. The previous two attempts were breakthroughs that failed, followed by sharp declines. Whether this time it can break and stabilize remains to be seen. However, we have already shorted near 105600, and we currently have a small profit of 600 points. If it cannot break through, this small profit will turn into a large loss; if it breaks through, we will gamble on a long position with a breakeven approach!

Woke up and the sky has fallen
Both the short and long traders are kneeling

Tonight, those who do not monitor the market will basically kneel, that's how the market is, always unexpected. When everyone thought there would be a big drop tonight, the big drop indeed came, but most people probably didn't anticipate another counterattack like this. Those who do not monitor the market tonight will basically face double losses, giving back profits, wasting this wave of big drop. You thought it was an opportunity for shorts to make big gains, but as soon as you woke up in the morning, your positions were gone, thinking it was an automatic take-profit, only to find it was an automatic stop-loss instead. There are just too many people shorting; this wave of counterattack is going to take down a lot of people again. For those who are monitoring the market, it’s basically a double win for both longs and shorts, making a good profit. Fortunately, my short position that I stayed up for tonight was closed early, making a small profit before retreating!

Don't rush to buy the dip on BTC
This round of decline is expected to see 95000

Today BTC suddenly experienced a sharp drop, falling from 103000 to 98600, a decline of nearly 5000 points, and it has not yet stopped falling. In this round of decline, I conservatively estimate it will reach 95000, and if it drops further, it could go to 85000. So for those who are interested, don't rush to buy the dip; be patient and wait. Typically, bottoms will give you two to three opportunities; it won't rebound all at once.

Now, for this decline, I believe it will reach at least 95000. Normally, it should hover between 92000 and 97000 for about ten days, and then depending on the specific situation, we will analyze whether it will go up or continue to decline!

The value of posts at the beginning of June is still on the rise
But will those who criticize me reflect on themselves?

At the beginning of June, I posted that the next month would mainly see declines. I said that for as long as it has risen, it will decline for just as long, at least until the end of the month. As a result, a bunch of people cursed me in the comments. Now it's already June 23, and what I said has once again been validated. I wonder if those who criticized me at the beginning of the month will acknowledge me even a little. To be honest, this kind of prediction a month in advance, if it can be predicted like this, I've done my best. Of course, I believe that the correctness of the prediction's direction is not important, as there is an element of luck involved. What truly matters is the accuracy of the points and the analysis of the market direction. Recently, those who have watched my live broadcasts know that the points and market analysis I provided have been particularly accurate. Those who watch my live streams can basically make profits!

So, in the future, don’t casually criticize me. Rather than criticizing me, why not come to my live stream and see if my analysis is good or accurate? If it is good and accurate, you can profit and also make a friend. If it’s not, you can evaluate later; it’s not too late then. What do you think?

The big drop has just begun
Everyone, don't rush to buy the dip

Tonight during the live broadcast, I clearly told everyone that it will definitely drop below 100,000, and I mentioned in the live chat that you can open a first position short around 102,600. As a result, a big drop happened, and many people made a profit, but we ourselves missed out. This is actually quite regrettable and frustrating because I had placed an order for a short above 103,000 in the community. Although the direction was correct, the price point was off by a few hundred dollars. I mainly wanted the community to achieve the best entry point, but we missed it by just a few hundred dollars and didn't get in, which is really unfortunate. In the live broadcast, I made a last-minute decision to let everyone open a first position short at 102,600, and I didn't even have time to post it in the community. I myself also didn't place an order to get in, and as a result, many people who watched my live broadcast made a profit, which I feel quite sorry for the community partners who missed out.

However, I want to tell everyone that this round of big drops is not over; everything has just begun. We will not see 100,000 BTC in the short term, and it has finally dropped below the 100,000 mark. This time, the first target should hover around 92,000-97,000. This range will likely linger for a while, probably around ten days. If it drops below 92,000, it will move to the 83,000-88,000 range. So for this round, the bottom may be quite deep, everyone should be cautious when buying the dip!

This month's decline
I perfectly predicted it again

At the beginning of June, I posted to tell everyone that June would mainly decline. I said that Bitcoin (BTC) would drop for as long as it had risen, and I clearly told everyone that it would fall at least until the end of the month. As a result, many people laughed at me in the comments, insulted me, slandered me, and even came to the live broadcast room to confront me. So what happened? My post was not wrong. Especially when it first stopped falling around 100,300 and rebounded to around 110,000, many people began to laugh at me again, saying it was close to a new high, and I was still saying it would drop significantly. I could only helplessly shake my head... All I can say is that whether my analysis is right or wrong, the people in the live room know it. I won't say more!

Finally, I want to tell everyone that this round of major decline has just begun. Don't be so eager to catch the bottom. This round of major decline will at least reach between 92,000 and 97,000. If it continues to drop, the eight-digit starting point is also just around the corner. If BTC goes to 7, then those altcoins will be unbearable to watch, and many will go to zero. If ETH gets a little crazy, it could go to three digits. So, I advise everyone not to rush to catch the bottom on spot trading. Wait until everything stabilizes, especially BTC, before taking action!

The two orders from yesterday
were really perfect
only because of my personal reasons
and then, well, it was canceled 😑