Article source: Felix
Author: Connor Sephton, CryptoNews
Translation: Felix, PANews
It has been 100 days since Trump returned to the White House, during which global markets have been tumultuous, filled with uncertainty and chaos.
When Trump successfully secured re-election, the crypto market was filled with hope. However, despite some important pro-Bitcoin statements made after Trump took office, crypto enthusiasts still felt disappointed.
Just before the inauguration, Trump announced the official token $TRUMP, leading to market frenzy while also sparking controversy. Some critics argue that this move presents obvious conflicts of interest and could even threaten national security.
$TRUMP has fallen 82% from its historical high of $75.35 set on January 19. However, $MELANIA performed worse, plummeting nearly 97%.
Source: CoinGecko
After Trump took office, speculation arose that he would sign a series of executive orders supporting cryptocurrency on his first day, including the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve. However, these orders never materialized. On January 20, Bitcoin briefly soared to a record $109,000, and it has not returned to that level since.
Trump indeed quickly fulfilled some of the campaign promises made at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference held in Nashville. Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the dark web market 'Silk Road,' received a full and unconditional pardon. In a photo circulating online, he is seen smiling for the first time after 11 years in prison. Reports suggest that Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) is also lobbying for a pardon, but this has not yet come to fruition.
Meanwhile, several members of Trump's cabinet who are friendly towards Bitcoin quickly gained Senate approval. This includes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who declared, 'Cryptocurrency is about freedom, and the cryptocurrency economy will endure.'
Others faced intense scrutiny. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick faced harsh criticism during his confirmation hearing but downplayed issues related to his company's ties with the Tether stablecoin.
The White House appointed David Sacks as the first 'czar' for artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency. Before taking office, he sold off his holdings of BTC, ETH, and SOL. This appointment received widespread praise, even from Trump's critics, including Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital.
Additionally, Trump's enterprises are increasingly venturing into the digital asset space, with Trump Media Technology Group amassing a substantial cryptocurrency reserve and launching a series of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
For Trump, there is one simple rule: always be prepared for the unexpected. As early as March 2, Trump suddenly announced on Truth Social that he intends to create a 'U.S. Crypto Reserve' containing XRP, Solana, and Cardano. Upon the news, the prices of these altcoins surged significantly, with some soaring by as much as 70%. However, the initial post did not mention BTC and ETH, but a subsequent follow-up statement emphasized that these two flagship digital assets would also 'become the core of the reserves.'
News that BTC would be lumped together with other altcoins quickly sparked debate, with experts calling the proposal 'absurd' and 'chaotic.' Concerns were also raised about the feasibility of the plan, fearing it might require Congressional approval to initiate, and few details were disclosed regarding funding allocation, sources of reserve funds, and when it would take effect.
All these issues eventually became irrelevant. Trump made a major turnaround, quickly signing an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve as originally planned—while also reserving other cryptocurrencies.
While this marks one of the largest adoption milestones in Bitcoin's history, BTC was heavily sold off as investors digested the news. Why? Because the executive order stated that no new BTC could be purchased as reserves, except for Bitcoin seized from criminals, unless acquisitions could be made without affecting the budget. This is also bad news for XRP, SOL, and ADA, as the U.S. currently does not hold these tokens.
Bitcoin supporters have generally expected the U.S. to become a significant buyer of Bitcoin—and to achieve Senator Cynthia Lummis's ambitious goal of accumulating one million Bitcoins within five years. However, using taxpayers' money for such purposes would be extremely hypocritical, especially considering Musk's commitment to significantly cut federal spending.
According to Arkham Intelligence, the U.S. currently holds about 198,000 Bitcoins, valued at around $18.8 billion. However, as noted by JAN3 CEO Samson Mow, the actual size of the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve may be much smaller—because 95,000 Bitcoins will ultimately be returned to Bitfinex. Nevertheless, Mow remains optimistic, believing that the significance of Trump's policy is still 'substantial,' as it will encourage other major economies to follow suit.
Shortly after Trump announced the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve, on March 7, the White House hosted its first cryptocurrency summit, attended by industry giants including Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy and Brian Armstrong of Coinbase. However, opinions on the summit were mixed; some analysts claimed it was 'more of a political stage than a meaningful policy forum.'
However, investors have more pressing issues to deal with, as Trump faces accusations of intentionally suppressing the stock market to pressure the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates. The S&P 500 index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index suffered severe blows, and the close correlation between the two means that Bitcoin's sell-off was even larger.
After 'Liberation Day,' things got even worse as the President announced comprehensive and punitive tariffs on some of America's closest trading partners, leading to a significant increase in the cost of imported goods. With the likelihood of recession rising and the war of words between Washington and Beijing escalating, Bitcoin fell to around $80,000 in early April.
Bitcoin was at risk of falling below $75,000, a 30% discount from its historical peak set on Inauguration Day. However, Trump confirmed a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries while raising tariffs on China back to 145%, temporarily providing some relief to the market. When smartphones and computers were exempted from these aggressive trade policies, market optimism further ignited. However, the White House's constant flip-flopping left investors feeling anxious and fatigued, with many now reducing their holdings in U.S. assets and turning to gold.
Today, keeping up with the endless stream of news from Washington is nearly impossible. Amid all this, Trump intensified his attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell—stating on Truth Social, 'Powell should be fired as soon as possible!'
Although presidents generally do not have the authority to dismiss heads of independent federal agencies, a Supreme Court case could change this precedent, allowing Trump to start intervening in the affairs of the Federal Reserve. Critics from both political camps worry this could lead to another market crash, as the S&P 500 index had once been on the brink of a bear market.
There was a slight delay in a key appointment, that of Paul Atkins as chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, who has been selected to replace the anti-crypto Gary Gensler. This appointment was finally completed last week, and one of his primary tasks will be to decide whether to approve ETFs tracking altcoins like XRP.
Meanwhile, despite the declining price of $TRUMP, the team behind it has come up with a novel way to attract attention. They will host an 'exclusive' dinner for the top 220 holders of the token, which has sparked a hoarding frenzy from now until May 12. Following the announcement, the value of $TRUMP soared by 64%.
However, some on crypto Twitter are uneasy, viewing this dinner as 'a trap aimed at selling off and profiting from those who bought in due to FOMO.' One analyst urged those who bought $TRUMP at high prices to sell quickly.
In the past 100 days, Bitcoin has dropped 12%, while the S&P 500 index has fallen 8.6%. The threat of tariffs still looms large. A new CNN poll shows that 59% of Americans believe Trump's policies have exacerbated the U.S. economy. About 60% think he has worsened the cost of living crisis, and an increasing number of consumers fear that a recession may be imminent.
Meanwhile, expectations that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high this year are rapidly diminishing. On the Polymarket platform, only 67% believe Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 by the end of 2025, while the probabilities of breaking $120,000, $130,000, and $150,000 have dropped to 54%, 40%, and 30%, respectively. In January, these targets were considered quite conservative, illustrating how quickly things can change.
Trump's political unpredictability makes it nearly impossible to predict what will happen next week, let alone next month or next year. This complicates forecasts for Bitcoin's future trajectory. Bold and confident price predictions should be approached with caution.
There have been monumental changes in the past 100 days, but there are still 1361 days to come.
Related reading: Trump's 100-day crypto policy 'report card': Why are promises hard to turn into action amid Bitcoin's rollercoaster?
