Analysis of the Multi-dimensional Impact of Bitcoin Under the Shock of Trump's Tariffs

1. Short-term Shock: Supply Chain Disruption Triggers Panic Selling in the Market

  1. Logistics Paralysis Transmitted to Consumption End

    • Cargo volume at the Port of Los Angeles plummeted by 35%, and retailers' inventory can only sustain for 5-7 weeks, which may lead to a 'commodity shortage' in the U.S. this summer, exacerbating inflation expectations (CPI is expected to exceed 6%).

    • Impact on Bitcoin: The initial stage of the supply chain crisis may trigger market panic, with funds flowing to traditional safe-haven assets such as the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, potentially leading to a simultaneous decline in Bitcoin (referencing a 18% drop in BTC during the lockdown period in Shanghai in 2022).

  2. Upgraded Risks in Mining Supply Chains

    • China's mining machine exports account for 70% of the global total. If the tariff war affects electronic products, the supply of mining machine chips may be interrupted, leading to a decrease in hash rate (current total network hash rate has fallen back 12% from its peak).

    • Impact on Bitcoin: A sudden drop in hash rate may trigger 'halving cycle anxiety', temporarily suppressing prices by 10.

2. Medium-term Game: Weakening Dollar Credit and Awakening Safe-Haven Attributes

  1. The Fracture of Dollar Hegemony Expands

    • The U.S. raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, forcing companies to turn to Southeast Asian supply chains, and the dollar's settlement share declined (March SWIFT data shows that the RMB's share rose to 3.5%).

    • Impact on Bitcoin: Damaged dollar credit may accelerate institutional allocation to Bitcoin (e.g., MicroStrategy increased holdings to 214,000 BTC), pushing BTC above $100,000.

  2. Surge in Demand for Inflation Hedging

    • Logistics costs are driving up commodity prices, and the U.S. core PCE may exceed 5%, with real interest rates potentially turning negative.

    • Impact on Bitcoin: On-chain data shows that whale addresses increased holdings by 213,000 BTC after the tariff announcement, setting a new high since October 2024.

3. Long-term Reconstruction: The Global Supply Chain Revolution Gives Rise to a New Narrative

  1. Decentralized Supply Chains Coupled with Bitcoin

    • To avoid tariffs, companies started adopting blockchain traceability technology (e.g., IBM Food Trust model), and Bitcoin may become the ultimate solution for cross-border payments.

    • Impact on Bitcoin: If giants like Walmart engage in BTC settlement, daily trading volume may exceed $50 billion, triggering a valuation reconstruction.

  2. Trend of Geoeconomic 'Isolationism'

    • If the U.S. and Europe form a tariff alliance against China, it will create a 'New Bretton Woods System', and Bitcoin may become a third-pole currency.

    • Impact on Bitcoin: Referring to the tenfold increase in gold after the 1971 collapse of the Bretton Woods system, Bitcoin may replicate the 'monetary system reconstruction dividend'.

Investment Strategy Recommendations

Short-term (1-30 days)

  • Risk Warning: Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on April 30. If a 'pause on rate cuts' signal is released, it may amplify market volatility.

  • Operational Advice: If BTC falls below the support level of $60,000, consider a light long position; if it breaks through $65,000, then look towards $70,000.

Medium-term (3-6 months)

  • Core Indicators:

    • U.S. Import Price Index (reflecting the actual impact of tariffs);

    • Sustainability of Bitcoin ETF Fund Inflows (current daily net inflow exceeds $1 billion).

  • Strategy Direction: Dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin + Ethereum futures long positions to hedge against stagflation risks triggered by supply chain crises.

Long-term (more than 1 year)

  • Ultimate Variables:

    • Whether the U.S. and China can reach a new framework on tariffs (referencing the 2018 G20 Argentina summit model);

    • Proportion of Bitcoin ETF in Institutional Allocation (currently only accounting for 0.3% of total U.S. stock holdings).

  • Endgame Simulation: If the global supply chain splits into two camps of 'U.S.-Allies' and 'China-Russia-Emerging Markets', Bitcoin may become a hard currency across systems, with a market value targeting $10 trillion.

Risk Warning

  • If the U.S. imposes strict controls on OTC trading through the (Digital Asset Market Structure Act), it may trigger a short-term liquidity crisis;

  • If China implements 'Export Controls on Crypto Assets', it will impact the migration momentum of miners.

Conclusion: This tariff shock is a key catalyst for Bitcoin's transition from 'risk asset' to 'new safe-haven asset'. Investors are advised to adopt a 'contrarian mindset'—the more chaotic the supply chain, the stronger the Bitcoin narrative.


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