#比特币 #BTC The recent rapid rise has attracted widespread attention in the market, with prices surpassing the $95,000 mark. Although this price increase has filled many with hope, some dangerous signals lie beneath the surface, preventing investors from fully relaxing their vigilance. Especially when Bitcoin's 'profit supply' reaches 86.87%, we are just a step away from a historical 'overheating' warning! 🔥
Profit supply is nearing a critical threshold, and correction risks are emerging ⚠️
Currently, Bitcoin's profit supply is close to historical highs—90%. This figure usually indicates that the market may be overheating, and while there may be a strong rebound in the short term, it is often followed by a correction. Reviewing past market trends, corrections that occur after the profit supply reaches this level often catch many investors off guard. Therefore, despite the continuous rise in Bitcoin prices, historical experience reminds us that we may only be welcoming an adjustment after a brief period of euphoria.
Recovery of Whales and Institutions: Drivers of Market Volatility 🐋
It is worth noting that the trading volume in the Bitcoin market has seen a significant increase recently, especially for large transactions over $10 million. Participation from whales and institutions has risen sharply, which is often closely related to major market movements. This not only provides strong momentum for Bitcoin's rise but also further exacerbates market volatility.
However, while whale activity provides momentum for the rise, it may also signal market instability, as their trading strategies can quickly influence overall market sentiment, especially during times of significant price fluctuations.
Capital Outflow: Can Bitcoin Sustain Its Upward Trend? 💸
In terms of capital flow, Bitcoin's net outflow continues to increase, with current outflows at $603 million and inflows at $436 million, resulting in a net outflow of approximately $167 million. Historical data shows that sustained capital outflows are often associated with market accumulation trends, providing some support for Bitcoin's price. In other words, investors are more inclined to hold rather than sell, which somewhat strengthens Bitcoin's support.
Network signals are giving mixed signals 🔄
Although accumulation signals have appeared in the market, on-chain valuations provide mixed warnings. Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has dropped to 1.73%, indicating that short-term holders do not have substantial profits, which limits the risk of large-scale profit-taking. However, the NVT (Network Value to Transactions) ratio has skyrocketed to 598.28, suggesting that the value growth of the Bitcoin network far exceeds actual transaction volumes. This indicates that Bitcoin's valuation may be overinflated, posing a risk of a bubble.
Liquidation cluster is approaching ⚔️
There is another potential risk in the market: the liquidation cluster.
According to Binance's BTC/USDT liquidation chart, the $90,000 to $93,000 range is a critical risk area. If the Bitcoin price falls below this level, a large number of highly leveraged long positions may be forced to liquidate, leading to further market decline. Conversely, if the price breaks above $95,000, it may trigger a short squeeze, accelerating the upward movement.
Summary: A cautious approach leads to long-term success ⛵
Although Bitcoin's rise is supported by whale accumulation, healthy supply dynamics, and capital outflows, signals from network activity and potential liquidation risks still remind investors to remain vigilant. If Bitcoin can hold the support range of $94,000 to $95,000, there is still a possibility of breaking through the $100,000 mark. However, while the market continues to rise, any large-scale liquidation could lead to severe fluctuations in the short term. Thus, while investors enjoy the optimistic sentiment brought by the rise, they must also manage risks cautiously and remain flexible.
