1. Core support levels set the tone for short-term trends
The current price of Bitcoin is competing around 94530, which serves as a 'deciding point' for the short-term trend on the 4-hour level. From a technical structure perspective, if the 4-hour close at night remains above this level, the bullish pattern remains unchanged, and the market is likely to continue fluctuating upwards; if it falls below, the short-term trend will reverse, and we need to guard against the risk of a pullback.
2. Analysis of key levels under long and short scenarios
Bullish continuation scenario (not breaking 94530)
- Technical signal: 4-hour MACD red bars continue, RSI in the strong zone of 55-65, price testing upwards relying on the 55-period moving average.
- Upside target:
- First resistance: 95780 (pressure from 4 hours ago's high connection);
- Second resistance: 96980 (upper band of the daily Bollinger bands);
- Key resistance: 98500 (round number at weekly level + previous dense trading area).
- Operation suggestion: Small-scale pullbacks to 94500-95000 can be used to gradually try going long, with a stop-loss at 94000, targets successively at 95800, 97000, and if it breaks through 98500, positions can be held to bet on new highs.
Bearish initiation scenario (breaking 94530)
- Technical signal: 4-hour K-line breaks below short-term moving average cluster, MACD dead cross + growth in green bars, forming the prototype of a 'bearish arrangement'.
- Downward support:
- First support: 93550 (support zone of May low);
- Second support: 92700 (200-day moving average on the daily chart);
- Strong support: 91880 (bottom of the 4-hour rising trend line).
- Operation suggestion: After breaking, stop loss for long positions, can try short positions lightly in the 94000-94300 zone, stop loss at 94800, targets down to 93600, 92700; breaking below 91880 can chase shorts down to around 91000.
3. Practical operation key points reminder
1. Time node: Focus on the 4-hour closing situation around 23:00 (UTC+8) to confirm the validity of the break.
2. Position control: Single trade position ≤20%, after the trend is clear, can add positions in batches (e.g., breaking resistance/breaking support), avoid full position operations.
3. Risk hedging: Spot holders can hedge near resistance (e.g., buying put options or short positions) to guard against high pullbacks.
4. News linkage: Pay attention to the evening's US economic data (such as unemployment claims, PMI) and monitor large transfers in the cryptocurrency space, be wary of major players taking advantage of the situation.
4. Summary:
If the market stabilizes above 98500, it is expected to challenge the 100,000 USD mark in the medium term; if it breaks below 91880, it may pull back to the 90000-91000 range for fluctuations. It is advised to maintain the mindset of 'following the trend, flexibly adjusting positions' to avoid guessing tops or bottoms too early, focusing on right-side trading.$BTC #BTC走势分析 
