What?! The chairman of the Federal Reserve is changing! What exactly is this Walsh? What will the future policies of the Federal Reserve be like? This is crucial for the crypto market!

Oh no, Sun Yuchen actually ran away? And the whale Spoofy also has new operations; it really is surprising!

Will the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next week result in a rate cut? Let’s follow Shu Qin to find out~

A lot of significant events have really happened in the past couple of days, making it hard to keep up. The first is that Sun Yuchen actually ran away! He is exiting!

According to on-chain data, Sun Yuchen transferred 200 million USD worth of Bitcoin to Binance, which is definitely for selling rather than leveraging. You have to know that when it was around 20-30,000, he had plenty of time to buy or leverage, so it’s impossible for him to be leveraging at this high. Therefore, this time he transferred Bitcoin to Binance can only mean he is selling.

However, from the known addresses, it seems that Sun only sold some Bitcoin and hasn’t sold Ethereum yet, probably waiting until the upgrade in two weeks.

Coincidentally, the legendary whale Spoofy, holding 6 billion, has started to reduce his position by 10% again after three days, indicating that he feels the current price is a good selling opportunity. This information is very critical, so don’t forget to follow me.

That said, this whale Shu Qin is still relatively well-informed; he prefers to sell on the rise rather than aiming to sell at the highest point.

Just like when he started to escape the peak last November, he was selling at 90,000 Bitcoin and continued until he sold out at 105,000. So his selling does not necessarily mean the market has peaked, but it is indeed very close to the top. After that, maybe altcoins will fly again, and this wave of the market might just end.

From the K-line, Bitcoin indeed rebounded to the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance, so it’s understandable that they start unloading here.

But for something like Ethereum, don't even mention 0.618; it's far from 0.382, and I think there will still be some room for price increases before the upgrade. So I have taken profits on Bitcoin and others, but I am still holding onto the several hundred Ethereum I bought at the bottom, hoping to take profits near 2000 or on the day of the upgrade.

However, there is one thing that makes me very worried, and that is that the next chairman of the Federal Reserve is about to take office. When Trump first took office, we only focused on his friendly attitude toward the crypto market and overlooked the insanity of his tariffs, which cost us quite a bit.

Now the new chairman of the Federal Reserve will take office next year, and his policies will determine the trajectory of the entire crypto market and even the capital market. We must understand his stance in advance to prepare for future trends.

The next chairman of the Federal Reserve is basically confirmed to be Kevin Walsh, and his speech at the IMF meeting made me see another Trump.

He said that the Federal Reserve should not communicate with the market but should return to tradition, back to the silent situation of over a hundred years ago. My god, this is very consistent with Trump's views; it seems he is also a nostalgic type, particularly fond of the era half a century ago.

So if he becomes the chairman of the Federal Reserve, I think the market will really add a lot of uncertainty. The reason the U.S. stock market has been able to stabilize and rise is because of Powell's transparent communication, which provides the market with expectations for the next steps and eliminates uncertainty.

As a result, during Powell's 8 years in office, the U.S. capital market experienced unprecedented prosperity. Even during the pandemic, he responded quickly and miraculously avoided a financial crisis, which is simply a miracle.

And now this Walsh belongs to the conservatives and hardliners; you can tell from his speeches that he doesn't like to communicate with the market, so Shu Qin is really a bit afraid of him taking office. He might, like Trump, give everyone too many 'surprises'. Thank you all.

However, to be fair, even if he really doesn't make sense, if he acts according to Trump’s wishes and significantly cuts rates, it would be a big boost for the crypto market in the short term. But, investors well-versed in macroeconomics know that rate cuts aren't without risks, as they could lead to rising inflation and possibly backfire.

Now that we’ve discussed the big trend, let’s take a look at short-term operations.

First of all, OZK will announce significant good news on April 30 and May 7, so everyone can prepare to see, as it has already risen by 30% since we first positioned ourselves. Then for Bitcoin, we have shorted it multiple times at the 95,000 resistance to take advantage of it, and the risk is relatively low because our strategy includes some other coin holdings as a hedge. If BTC doesn't rise and fluctuates up and down, then I can profit from that. If it does go up, I can just take a small loss, with spot profits, and head to Prague. So my risk in shorting is relatively low, as there is some hedging to play the waves, and each time I play it, I earn a bit more. These strategies are updated in real-time every day, so if you're interested, you can come and take a look.

Additionally, as May approaches, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting will start in less than two weeks. Will there be a rate cut this time? And how will Bitcoin move?

This monetary policy meeting will be held at 2 a.m. on May 8, and we can be 100% sure that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates, so don’t misjudge. Although they will not cut rates, Powell will express his views on the future direction of interest rates at the meeting, so as long as he adopts a dovish tone and hints at a rate cut in June, the May meeting will also stimulate a surge in the crypto market.

Conversely, if Powell adopts a hawkish stance, leading to the collapse of the fantasy of a rate cut in June, the crypto market might experience a significant crash.

Now that we have talked about May, will there really be a rate cut at the upcoming June meeting? Let’s let the data speak.

Currently, the probability of no rate cut in June is 38.4%, the probability of one rate cut is 56.4%, and the probability of two rate cuts is 5.2%. So the probability of a rate cut is slightly higher.

This Wednesday, there will be the most important inflation indicator, the PCE data, which will likely decline significantly, bringing inflation back to normal levels. Therefore, I believe that Powell will adopt a dovish stance in May to pave the way for a rate cut in June.

Then the interest rate market on Wall Street is also betting more on this situation. So, to reiterate, although there will be no rate cut in May, the possibility of Powell adopting a dovish stance is quite high, thus it will still be a good news. Considering what we discussed at the beginning about Sun Yuchen and Spoofy starting to reduce their positions, I think May 7 will be a good opportunity to exit at a high point. What do you think?