After quickly touching $1835 in the morning session, it was smashed back below $1800. On-chain evidence shows Grayscale dumped 16,000 ETH in the $1823-$1832 range, combined with $38 million in short positions lurking on Bitfinex, indicating a clear intention to suppress the price.

The five-minute chart's MA30 has crossed below MA60, forming a death cross. The MACD is starting to expand after a second death cross above the zero line, which has invalidated the bullish arrangement from the morning session. This technical pattern is chilling to observe.



Double blow from the news: The SEC has postponed the vote on the ETH spot ETF to July 8, and CME's Ethereum open interest has evaporated by 12%. These two messages, combined with the four-hour death triangle — Fibonacci 23.6% resistance level at $1812, Deribit's maximum pain point moving down to $1750, and perpetual contract funding rates turning negative to -0.015%, all three signals appearing simultaneously are equivalent to putting triple shackles on the bulls.

Currently, the support range of $1768-$1785 is gathering the weekly EMA21, daily chip peak, and the lower edge of the ATR channel. More critically, there are $230 million in leveraged long orders on BitMEX within this range. If this level breaks down with volume, the avalanche effect triggered by liquidation could directly smash through the strong weekly support at $1730.



However, there is a detail worth pondering: Coinbase had a market sell order of 2000 ETH appear in the early morning, clearly indicating that the main force is testing the liquidity depth.



My personal trading strategy is adjusted to firmly avoid opening new positions near the current price of $1800. If there is a rebound to the $1820-$1825 pressure zone, I can take a 2% position to short, with a stop loss set above $1845, offering a very favorable risk-reward ratio. If it breaks down with volume below $1775, I will directly chase the shorts aiming for the $1730 weekly major support, which could yield at least a $50 profit.



Important reminder: The current volatility index has skyrocketed to 47%, and all positions must have a dynamic stop loss of $18, equivalent to the 10-minute ATR value. The CPI data at 20:30 during the U.S. trading session is a nuclear-level event, with a high probability of a major trend change occurring within two hours after the data is released. The current market is like a tightly wound spring, with both bulls and bears waiting for that trigger; smart money has already contracted their positions, waiting to pick up bloody chips.

Remember, in this meat grinder market, surviving longer is more important than making quick profits; it's better to miss an opportunity than to make a mistake.

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