【April 30 $BTC Five Minutes Practical Analysis: Long and Short Battle Focus on 93678 Lifeline】
Current Bitcoin price is 94520, with the five-minute line oscillating between 93680-95200 for over 12 hours. The moving average system of 5EMA and 13EMA shows a dead cross below water and continues to diverge, which means this bearish arrangement in a fluctuating market is a powder keg, potentially leading to a one-sided breakout at any moment.
Technical Analysis: There are three times the average liquidation orders piled up at 95200 above, and when the needle touched 95180 at midnight, bears quickly dumped with a pressure of 6.8 BTC. Without increased volume, breaking this level strongly is nearly impossible. The MACD double lines are lying at -120, RSI is stuck in the weak rebound range at 38, and the technical indicators are completely controlled by bears. Below 93680, not only is it the CME futures gap, but it's also a weekly level dividing line for long and short positions. A breakout below directly looks at 92800 strong support area.
News Flash: Ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Grayscale's holdings plummeted by 420 BTC, the US ADP employment data exceeded expectations but wage growth was unexpectedly cold, and the VIX fear index surged to 19.8, hitting a monthly high. Even more severe, BlackRock’s spot ETF saw a net outflow of 38 million USD last night, and on-chain monitoring shows that a whale address transferred 2200 BTC to Binance without executing—these signals are all handing knives to the bears.
Volume Reveals Secrets: Five-minute trading volume shrank to 32% of the daily average, and the market maker is clearly waiting for the 21:30 US stock market opening. The correlation coefficient between BTC and Nasdaq 100 surged to a historical high of 0.91 over 72 hours; if tech stocks are crushed by interest rate expectations tonight, Bitcoin is likely to test the 93000 level. The long-short ratio in the futures market is 1.18, appearing balanced, but the perpetual contract funding rate of -0.0038% indicates that bears are starting to place heavy bets.
Avoid taking chances in operations; remember that the market is currently in a dual kill situation of macro data and institutional selling pressure. Counter-trend trading is equivalent to delivering oneself to the slaughter.
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