Bitcoin Market Outlook: Ascending Triangle Pattern and Trend Change Prospects
Bitcoin is currently at a critical moment, forming an ascending triangle pattern on the technical chart, which usually indicates that the price may break upwards or downwards. The market is full of expectations, but will it break out or break down? Let's explore this from the perspective of technical analysis and market dynamics. The bearish signal mentioned for Bitcoin on the daily chart yesterday—the 'Evening Star' pattern—was invalidated by a subsequent strong rebound candlestick, indicating limited bearish strength.
Unless the price breaks below the lower trend line of the ascending triangle, the pullback depth is expected to be limited. Currently, the 4-hour chart shows resistance around $95,000, while support lies at the ascending trend line, with lows continuing to rise, indicating bullish momentum.
Technical Analysis: Probability of Breaking Out of Ascending Triangle
On the weekly level, Bitcoin closed above the annual opening price, strengthening the long-term bullish trend. The ascending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart further supports this view; if the upper resistance at $95,000 is broken, it may open up further upward space. In smaller timeframe analysis, a top divergence is appearing on the 1-hour chart (price makes new highs but momentum weakens), and the energy bars on the 15-minute chart have decreased and turned negative, suggesting a potential short-term pullback. However, a bullish engulfing pattern at the current support level limits the bearish downside potential. Therefore, the probability of an upward breakout from the ascending triangle is higher, and pullbacks can be seen as a buying opportunity.
Yesterday's Altcoin Performance and Today's Opportunities
Several altcoins we mentioned yesterday performed well: SUI rose 14.2% after stabilizing on the 1-hour chart, TAO rebounded 12.81%, EDU surged over 40% last week, and AXS also saw significant gains. This indicates that after Bitcoin stabilizes, funds often flow into altcoins, resulting in excess returns. Today, noteworthy altcoins include:
·INJ: The daily chart forms a descending channel; if the 4-hour chart volume breaks the trend line, the target price is $13-15.
·PIPPIN: Driven by the recent meme coin craze (such as TROLL and BONK), the 4-hour chart shows a rounded bottom formation, with a pullback to the neckline being a short-term buying point.
Trading Strategy: Cautious Optimism and Batch Building
Today's strategy suggests maintaining cautious optimism. For Bitcoin, avoid chasing high prices at $92,800 or $91,700; prioritize building positions in batches near the ascending trend line, keeping some capital to respond to potential further pullbacks. Smaller timeframes (15-minute or 1-hour charts) can be used to confirm entry signals. Altcoins should focus on high-probability opportunities with INJ and PIPPIN, utilizing technical patterns to capture short-term gains. The overall trend supports selective long positions, but attention must be paid to disciplined entry and risk management.
Market Sentiment and May Outlook
Market sentiment is positive, with significant supporting factors. Last week, the cryptocurrency market saw a net inflow of $9 billion, with MicroStrategy purchasing $1.4 billion in Bitcoin. Exchange Bitcoin reserves continue to decline, indicating that large holders may be preparing for a breakthrough above $100,000 or even higher in May. Combining the ascending triangle pattern and capital inflows, the mid-term bullish foundation is solid. May is seen as a 'real big opportunity,' and traders should position themselves in advance to avoid missing potential moves.
Summary and Recommendations
Bitcoin is currently at a critical stage of the ascending triangle, with a higher likelihood of breaking upwards. It is recommended to buy on dips near the trend line support while also paying attention to short-term opportunities in altcoins. The recent surges in SUI, TAO, EDU, and AXS validated our analysis, and today INJ and PIPPIN are worth focusing on. Market capital inflows and reduced supply provide support for a mid-term bullish outlook.
