Review and Analysis of Bitcoin's False Breakout
Before the holiday begins, we predict that Bitcoin prices may break through $95,700 and even challenge $98,000, but it could ultimately be a false breakout. From a technical perspective, the RSI and MACD show divergence signals, and the trading volume is gradually diminishing during the three-stage rise, indicating insufficient upward momentum. Historical data also supports this judgment, as similar breakouts past the upper resistance line often end in a retreat. The current trend generally aligns with expectations, with prices retracting after the false breakout, providing opportunities for subsequent positioning. For friends who are new to us, we recommend subscribing for ongoing market analysis.
Weekly Analysis and Top Pressure
The weekly close shows a long upper shadow, indicating significant pressure above and clear top signals. The closing price is close to $94,373, near last month's monthly line, presenting a neutral state. Although a false breakout occurred, the market did not experience panic selling. Breaking through $98,312 will require more time and momentum; it is expected that a breakthrough will be difficult in the first two weeks of May, and short-term fluctuations may continue.
Daily Line Patterns and Retracement Targets
The daily chart shows the price at the edge of a Evening Star pattern; if a bearish candle closes today and there is no rebound around $94,000, the retracement may deepen, targeting the $91,500 to $90,000 range. This range represents previous lows, and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (approximately $91,819) is also nearby, forming a strong support level. The performance of the US stock market at opening will affect whether the price can stabilize near the yearly and last month's monthly lines. Without an effective rebound, the probability of a retracement to the $91,000 range is high, and investors should consider building positions in this area.
Capital Preparation and Regular Investment Strategy
Investors are advised to prepare sufficient funds, allowing for both regular investments and aggressive accumulation in the $91,000 to $91,819 range. We have continuously suggested maintaining ample funds, as the current retracement provides an opportunity for positioning ahead of the significant market movement in May. Investors should remain patient and wait for the price to reach the target area before taking action to capture subsequent upside potential.
FOMC Meeting and Market Volatility Expectations
This week's FOMC meeting and Coinbase's earnings report may trigger fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. The market generally expects a 99% probability of maintaining interest rates in May, with the possibility of a rate cut nearly zero. However, the Trump administration may exert pressure to create unexpected positive news, so vigilance for sudden events is necessary. Another possibility is that after the price retraces to the appropriate level (around one week), it may gradually rise after slight fluctuations, but an immediate V-shaped reversal is unlikely. Prices are expected to fluctuate above $95,700, with a potential breakthrough of $98,000 in the third week of May, aiming for $100,000.
Summary and Outlook
The retracement after Bitcoin's false breakout aligns with expectations, with the $91,000 to $91,819 range being an ideal area for building positions. The FOMC meeting may bring short-term volatility, but the overall bullish trend remains unchanged. The third week of May is expected to break through $98,000, aiming for $100,000. We hope the analysis above is helpful to you; feel free to like and comment, and we'll see you next time.
