Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick predicts that multiple indicators show Bitcoin is set for a new round of increases, anticipating Bitcoin will rise to $120,000 in Q2. Meanwhile, Bernstein analysts pointed out that the exhaustion of retail selling pressure, the expansion of corporate accumulation competition, and the influx of funds into Bitcoin ETFs are driving a 'supply squeeze' that could lead Bitcoin to achieve a new historical high.
The cryptocurrency market has begun to recover since last week, and Bitcoin has recently briefly surpassed the $95,000 mark multiple times, currently standing at $95,329, demonstrating a robust price performance.
Standard Chartered: Bitcoin is set for a new round of increases.
The market is currently highly focused on whether Bitcoin can break through the current resistance and challenge the $100,000 mark again, and whether it can set a new historical high.
In this context, Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicted in a report released on Monday (28) that Bitcoin is about to experience the next wave of increases.
He presented several indicators supporting this judgment: first, the U.S. Treasury yield curve premium (which is highly correlated with Bitcoin prices) has reached a 12-year high, possibly indicating bullish sentiment for Bitcoin; second, analysis of trading hours shows that U.S. investors are actively seeking non-U.S. assets, particularly evident since Trump previously announced a 90-day tariff grace period for all countries except China.
Additionally, Asian investors have started buying Bitcoin, further strengthening the upward momentum. At the same time, 'whale' investors holding over 1,000 Bitcoins are continuously accumulating amid the market downturn, consistent with whale buying behavior during previous significant market movements. Finally, the ETF fund flows over the past week indicate that investors are shifting from gold to Bitcoin, highlighting Bitcoin's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Kendrick further pointed out that Bitcoin's primary role in the investment portfolio is as a hedging tool against the risks of the existing financial system, and he believes that Bitcoin is more effective than gold in this regard. He indicated that Bitcoin's decentralized nature allows it to perform better in the face of financial system risks, while gold is more suitable for combating geopolitical risks.
Based on the above analysis, Kendrick is extremely optimistic about Bitcoin's price performance. He predicts that Bitcoin will reach a historical high of $120,000 in the second quarter of 2025 and maintains his bullish view that Bitcoin will surge to $200,000 by the end of 2025. He emphasized that the upcoming U.S. 13F holdings report to be released in mid-May may show long-term buying from pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, along with the potential expectation of the passage of U.S. stablecoin legislation, which could extend Bitcoin's upward momentum into the summer.
Bernstein: Corporate accumulation and ETF supply squeeze will push Bitcoin higher.
In response to Standard Chartered's optimistic forecast, Bernstein also holds a positive view on Bitcoin's future performance. Bernstein analysts pointed out that the exhaustion of retail selling pressure, the expansion of corporate accumulation competition, and the influx of funds into Bitcoin ETFs are driving a 'supply squeeze' that could lead Bitcoin to achieve a new historical high.
Bernstein analysts reiterated their prediction that Bitcoin will reach about $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by the end of 2029, and $1,000,000 by the end of 2033.
In the long term, we believe that Bitcoin's fundamentals are driven by its own demand trajectory and its mathematically proven fixed supply of 21 million coins. Currently, 19.9 million Bitcoins have been mined, with nearly 95% of the remaining 1.1 million to be mined in the next 10 years. Given the current supply-demand dynamics, we find it difficult to hold a pessimistic view on this asset.
