Seeing many friends say that there is no problem with the U.S. debt, from a static perspective, the U.S. national debt can indeed hold up for now. For example, while the debt-to-GDP ratio is high, the interest rate burden has not yet overwhelmed the finances, and tax revenues can cover most of the interest expenses. There is still global demand, especially the inertia of the dollar as a reserve currency. But the problem lies in sustainability. Once interest rates remain high, or new bond yields continue to rise, the self-rolling mechanism of the U.S. national debt system will fall into accelerated deterioration. Every one percentage point increase does not merely mean an increase in interest expenses; it accelerates the overall sustainability of federal finances.
Currently, tariffs do not seem to pose a problem. In the short term, tariffs appear to increase fiscal revenue and protect domestic industries. However, in the medium to long term, they will lead to selective economic contraction. Once a contraction occurs, it will create a chain reaction. The impact of tariffs and the burden of national debt are not isolated; they have a high degree of positive feedback. Tariffs lead to economic downturn → tax revenue decreases → fiscal deficit widens → pressure on debt rolling increases.
From a higher-dimensional perspective, the U.S. economy itself remains strong and has a certain internal adjustment capacity. Theoretically, it can gradually achieve structural rebalancing over 5–10 years, such as industrial reshoring, fiscal contraction, and debt repricing. However, the problem with tariffs as a blunt policy tool is that it effectively deprives the U.S. economy of the time window for a smooth transition, accelerates local imbalances, and forces systemic adjustments to erupt prematurely, rather than naturally evolving. In other words, the U.S. could have taken ten years to slowly rebuild its foundations but has instead entered an irreversible tightening spiral due to the combination of tariffs and high-interest rate policies.
