Today, I will teach you some practical tips on playing event contracts to reduce losses and expand profits.
Everyone knows that event contracts can be set for 10 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, or a day.
So, opening longer-term positions can be hedged with shorter-term positions to mitigate risk or achieve profits on both sides.
Many people must know or have used this method.
You will find that there is a significant risk: if the direction completely reverses, hedging at that time will lead to the problem of simultaneous losses on both sides.
How to solve this problem? It is unrealistic to say it can be completely solved. The fact that this gameplay can be implemented means the platform has undergone big data experiments and has no issues, leaving you with no loopholes to exploit.
Therefore, when the direction completely reverses, you need to abandon that position. If the direction is correct and unlikely to revert, there is no need to hedge; you only need to hedge when the position is uncertain.
So now, there are four scenarios:
1. Two positions hedged - loss of 20% of the principal
2. Profit on both sides - profit of 260% of the principal
3. Profit on one position - profit of 180% of the principal
4. Loss on one position - loss of 100% of the principal
Based on the average probabilities of these four scenarios, let's calculate when I have 100 yuan and bet 10 yuan, with each scenario occupying 25% in 10 rounds.
1. First, calculate the expected return for each bet:
- Each time spending 10 yuan to bet, the actual returns for different scenarios are as follows:
- Scenario one actual return is 26 - 10 = 16 yuan;
- Scenario two actual return is 18 - 10 = 8 yuan;
- Scenario three actual return is 8 - 10 = -2 yuan;
- Scenario four actual return is 0 - 10 = -10 yuan.
- According to the expected return formula, the expected return for each bet is:
-E(X)=0.25×(16 + 8 - 2 - 10) = 3 (yuan).
- The expected return for each bet is 3 yuan, so the total expected return after 10 bets is 3×10 = 30 yuan.
- Therefore, after buying ten times, the remaining amount is the initial amount plus the total expected return, which is 100 + 30 = 130 yuan.
Of course, this is just an expected result based on probabilities, and the actual outcome depends on your own strategy. If your accuracy is high, then the returns will be high; conversely, if the accuracy is low or if you bet randomly based on mood, then it becomes completely random.
So, when everyone plays, it is still important to have your own standards.
If anything is incorrect, please feel free to add your input.
