Global markets have entered a wait-and-see mode, with more noise than signal.

Recently, there seems to be signs of easing in the China-U.S. tariff war, but there is a lack of substantial benefits, and people are still closely monitoring the subsequent developments. After frequent changes in policy stance, investors will still need time to be thoroughly convinced. Importantly, even after Trump's selective concessions, the planned and actual tariffs remain very high.

There are three major events this week:

· First, Trump's second term will reach its 100th day on April 30, at which point he will announce his second 100-day plan. Considering that his first 100 days in office led to market turmoil and widespread criticism, he may find ways to bring some good news to the market. The market believes that tariffs have peaked, and Trump will be forced to lower tariffs on China.

· Second, major U.S. tech stocks will report earnings (Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon), and the recent turmoil has made Wall Street more focused on the unique challenges each company faces. If the results are poor, it will trigger a second wave of sell-offs in the U.S. stock market.

· Third, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for April will be released, which will be the first non-farm data covering the impact of reciprocal tariffs, and is significant—however, it seems more likely to become bad news. If the non-farm data is positive, it reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering rates; if the non-farm data is poor, it confirms that tariffs are starting to have a significant impact on the labor market and begins to fuel recession speculation. Only when recession speculation deepens will bad news turn into good news.

The market trend is still cautious, revealing unease:

- The dollar index remains below the 100 level and may break downward at any time;

- Gold prices, oil prices, and U.S. stock futures are falling, with gold prices dropping below $3,300 in early trading;

- The Chinese stock market has slightly declined, showing weak trends.

Almost every market's instinctive impulse is downward.