This week, the market will unleash its big moves! The latest GDP data, PCE inflation data, and tech stock earnings data will all be released.
Will this data backfire? How will bitcoin and U.S. stocks perform? Will they rise or fall? Let's break it down together.
1. Is there any progress in the tariff negotiations? What is the market's reaction?
The good news is that there has been some movement in the tariff negotiations!
South Korea and India have already started negotiations, and Japan and the U.S. also plan to continue talks at the end of April or early May.
What about the highly anticipated China-U.S. negotiations?
Although Trump hasn't made much noise, this week the village's finance minister and central bank governor will attend the World Bank and IMF meetings in the U.S., and there will likely be some lower-level communication.
However, don't expect the China-U.S. negotiations to be like those with other countries; the long-term trend of decoupling in China-U.S. relations is already in the market's psychological preparation.
Therefore, it is not a big issue if no agreement is reached in the short term, but as long as there is some minor progress, market sentiment can improve a bit.
Negotiations with other countries, such as South Korea, will not be resolved overnight; at the earliest, it will be delayed until July.
This means that the tariff negotiations are a protracted battle; there won't be major breakthroughs in the short term, but as long as there are small advancements, it can stabilize market sentiment.
2. Are the heavyweight financial reports coming? Will they backfire?
This week, four of the seven tech giants will report earnings, along with MicroStrategy, a bitcoin enthusiast company. These earnings reports will directly impact U.S. stock sentiment.
If tech giants perform well, U.S. stocks may continue to rise. But if the financial reports are disappointing, it may drag down the market.
3. How is the economic data? Can it stabilize the market?
On Wednesday, the first quarter GDP and March PCE data will be released in the U.S.
GDP will reflect whether the U.S. economy is doing well; the market expectation is very low, only 0.4%. If it exceeds expectations, U.S. stocks and BTC may surge. But if the data is too poor, the market may adjust.
PCE data reflects inflationary pressure; the tariff increase in March may push up prices. If PCE rises sharply, the market may panic.
4. Is there hope for the Arizona bitcoin bill?
Early Tuesday morning, Arizona will hold the third reading for the state bitcoin strategic reserve, which may lead to a direct vote. If passed, it will be sent for the governor's approval.
Once approved, Arizona will become the first state in the U.S. to treat BTC as a strategic reserve.
This is different from Trump's national strategic reserve. Trump said taxpayer money cannot be used to buy BTC, but Arizona can directly buy bitcoin with up to 10% of its fiscal or retirement funds.
Although not much can be bought in the short term, this matter is of great significance.
Why? Because a spot ETF simply makes it easier for institutions and retail investors to buy bitcoin, while state governments buying directly is equivalent to an official endorsement of bitcoin!
More importantly, the first state has taken the lead, making it easier for other states to follow, potentially triggering a domino effect.
In the long run, this will boost the demand for bitcoin and market confidence.
5. What is Trump going to do again?
Trump has started to take action again. He has bundled tax cuts and tariffs, hoping to use tax cuts to offset the price increases caused by tariffs, and may even exempt certain groups from taxes.
Tax cuts primarily target individuals with annual incomes below $200,000, and specifically include the upper middle class with incomes between $100,000 and $200,000, aiming to garner more voter support.
Trump's calculation is that tariffs push up prices, while tax cuts allow the public to spend less, easing inflationary pressure.
At the same time, high tariffs force foreign companies to build factories in the U.S., creating jobs, lowering the unemployment rate, and making economic data look better.
If this series of maneuvers is executed well, U.S. stocks may continue to rise in the short term.
But in the long run, whether tax cuts can fully offset the inflationary pressure from tariffs still depends on the implementation strength and economic data.
6. Can U.S. stocks and bitcoin rise further?
Recently, the market has recovered from the drop caused by tariffs, and U.S. stocks have basically returned to the high point of April 2.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are only 1-2% away from their previous highs and are expected to test this resistance level early next week.
Bitcoin has risen even more than U.S. stocks and has reached the top of the February fluctuation range, at the 95,000-98,000 position.
However, this rebound driven solely by market sentiment might be nearing its end; the next focus will be on whether there are genuine positives.
For example, if U.S. economic data is strong or there is good news within the crypto industry, such as if Arizona's bitcoin bill is passed on Tuesday, it would be a major positive.
7. How will the market perform this week? What are the risks?
Currently, everyone is more concerned about the real performance of economic data; the market focus has shifted from tariff games to economic fundamentals.
The trading volume of BTC is relatively low over the weekend, and the turnover rate is also low, indicating that the main funds have not really entered the market.
However, the founder of MicroStrategy has released a bitcoin tracker again, indicating they are likely to buy the dip.
There is also a large whale on-chain that bought 30,000 ETH and 600 BTC, with a total value of over 110 million USD, indicating that big players are also accumulating at low levels.
Next, GDP and PCE data are key.
If GDP exceeds expectations, such as surpassing 0.4%, it indicates that the U.S. economy is not that bad, and U.S. stocks and bitcoin may continue to rise.
But if the data is disappointing, the market may experience panic.
There is also the PCE data; if PCE shows little inflationary pressure, the market will feel more at ease. But if inflation rises, everyone might become cautious.
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