In the past two weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has quietly carved out an independent and strong upward curve amid the turbulence of global financial markets.
From April 20 to April 26, BTC prices rose by 11%, stabilizing above $94,000, not only returning to a two-month high but also officially breaking through $95,000 today. Many people can't help but ask: this time, is Bitcoin really going to soar to a new historical high?
On the surface, this is a routine rebound, but delving deeper reveals that this round of increases hides several crucial variables that may quietly pave the way for Bitcoin's future move toward the $100,000 mark.
1. Large-scale liquidations become the driving force, leaving shorts caught off guard.
During this upward trend, the most unignorable factor is the large-scale short liquidations.
Data shows that since April 21, over $450 million in BTC short positions have been forced to close. This scale of liquidation is an extremely typical accelerator during bullish phases: when prices break through key levels, short sellers are forced to 'buy back at high prices,' directly increasing market buying pressure.
Although a negative funding rate was recorded on April 26—usually indicating increased bearish sentiment—once Bitcoin prices broke through $94,000, selling pressure was suppressed, leading to a rapid rise.
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2. BTC and stocks 'decoupling,' independence enhanced.
In the past, Bitcoin prices had a relatively close correlation with the S&P 500 index (S&P 500). However, now this correlation is clearly declining.
Latest data shows that the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is only 29%, significantly lower than the 60% from mid-March to mid-April. This indicates that Bitcoin is gradually breaking free from the influence of traditional stock market sentiment, forming its own independent market logic.
This change reflects an upgrade in the market's perception of Bitcoin: it is no longer simply viewed as a 'high-risk asset,' but is beginning to be accepted in its role as an 'independent store of value.'
Similar signals of independence reinforcement can be quickly captured by Mlion.ai's sentiment analysis and trend prediction module, combining global news context to provide you with market insights faster than traditional media.
3. Institutions are bullish vs. retail investors are cautious; power is quietly accumulating.
Another contradiction in the current market is:
Institutional investors clearly lean bullish, while retail traders appear unusually cautious.
Data shows that the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a record net inflow of $3.1 billion in just five days, mainly from large institutional funds. Meanwhile, the monthly Bitcoin futures basis rose to 6.5%, reaching a seven-week high. This indicator usually reflects an increase in bullish interest among professional investors.
At the same time, in the retail-dominated perpetual futures market, there has been a phenomenon of negative funding rates and a decrease in leverage demand.
This means that a large amount of professional funds are continuously increasing positions, but small investors are still in a wait-and-see and skeptical stage.
In the crypto market, when large funds are quietly positioning while retail investors have not yet fully entered, it often represents the eve of the largest upward movements.
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4. Macroeconomic benefits: tariff easing and asset allocation changes.
This Bitcoin rebound is not an isolated event. The Trump administration recently signaled a reduction in import tariffs, while the overall performance of U.S. companies during earnings season exceeded expectations. This has increased global investors' risk appetite and propelled the simultaneous rise of the stock market and Bitcoin.
However, it is worth noting that the upward momentum of Bitcoin does not completely rely on the stock market. This is supported by gold’s performance: although gold prices corrected after reaching a historic high of $3,500 on April 22, Bitcoin managed to maintain its high level independently.
This further solidifies Bitcoin's market recognition as a new independent asset class.
In this rapidly intertwining environment of macro changes, utilizing Mlion.ai's news deep analysis and AI strategy diagram functions can help investors quickly understand complex situations and formulate more scientific trading plans.
5. Bitcoin's challenge to $100,000: opportunity or trap?
Of course, there are still concerns.
Although current data shows that Bitcoin has ample momentum to race toward $100,000, negative signals in the derivatives market in the short term, such as the appearance of negative funding rates, also remind us to guard against risks from overheating adjustments.
Especially in the current subtle stage where retail investors are cautious and institutions are quietly adding, investment strategies need to be more flexible to avoid blindly chasing highs and cutting losses.
With Mlion.ai, not only can you monitor market dynamics in real-time, but you can also adjust your positions based on AI assessments, keeping pace with the main rhythm of the bull market while effectively avoiding risks from short-term pullbacks.
Summary
The opportunity for Bitcoin to set a new historical high in May is gradually accumulating.
Whether it’s large-scale liquidations, institutional buying, or the strengthening of its independent asset status, the story behind this rise is more worthy of reflection than ever.
If you are only looking at price fluctuations and ignoring the real market forces behind them, you might miss a new wave of wealth opportunities in the crypto world.
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Disclaimer
The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice! The cryptocurrency market carries high risks; investments should be made with caution and based on individual circumstances.
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