After several weeks of stagnation, the crypto market has finally welcomed a long-awaited warming signal. As global trade frictions gradually diminish, leverage sentiment has rapidly heated up in the market—USDT lending rates soared to 39%, setting a new high for the year, and the yields of short-term financial products across major platforms generally increased by 2 to 3 percentage points. The crypto market, especially altcoins, seems to be ushering in a wave of 'minor spring'.
Data shows that since April 8, the median increase among the top 100 tokens by market capitalization has reached 38%, significantly outperforming Bitcoin's 28% increase during the same period, indicating that the profit effect is accelerating from Bitcoin to altcoins. So, the question arises: does this mean that an altcoin bull market is about to make a comeback?
Unfortunately, from a deeper logical perspective, the likelihood of altcoins genuinely entering a comprehensive bull market remains extremely low.
The dilemma of altcoins: oversupply + capital accumulation, making it difficult for the bull market to reoccur.
First, looking at the global capital market, every time the entry threshold is lowered, anyone can easily issue tokens, leading to a surge in the number of assets, which inevitably results in a trend of capital concentrating towards the top.
This pattern has long been verified in traditional financial markets. Taking Nasdaq as an example, the top seven technology giants have long monopolized 50%-60% of the total market capitalization and accounted for nearly 40% of trading volume. This 'winner-takes-all' pattern is also unfolding in the crypto market. In the future crypto world, it is likely that major tokens like BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP will dominate while small coins will become liquidity cannon fodder.
Secondly, the incremental funds on the demand side have already dried up. According to Coinglass data, the daily trading volume peaks in March and November 2024 were only $600 billion, nearly on par with the peak of the 2021 bull market. This indicates that there has been no substantial increase in the actual purchasing power of the crypto market over the past four years. The population dividend has disappeared, and the increase in funds is limited, making a large-scale bull market difficult to sustain. What remains is destined to be structural opportunities.
Bitcoin vs Gold: The Ultimate Battle of Digital Scarcity.
As Bitcoin continues to rebound, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, unexpectedly experienced a pullback. This is not a failure of the safe-haven logic but a reallocation of global funds between safe-haven assets.
Although gold is scarce, it continues to grow at a rate of 3,000 tons per year, and advancements in mining technology have ensured a stable annual production increase of 1.6%. In contrast, Bitcoin ensures a decreasing supply through a four-year halving mechanism, eventually capping its total supply in 2140. Bitcoin is a truly 'absolutely scarce asset' with mathematical certainty.
Moreover, gold, as a settlement tool, has a series of hard injuries such as lack of standardization, circulation difficulties, and high transaction costs, while Bitcoin has the absolute advantages of fast cross-border transfers, unified standards, and low costs. Against the backdrop of global trade restructuring and the decline of dollar hegemony, Bitcoin's potential as an international settlement tool is being reexamined.
Notably, with the large-scale inflow of spot ETFs, the proportion of institutional holdings is continuously rising, and the volatility of Bitcoin has dropped to 50% during the 2024-2025 period, setting a new historical low of 3.5 compared to gold's volatility. This means that Bitcoin is gradually transforming from a 'super speculative asset' into a stable asset.
The rebound of altcoins is merely a 'technical repair'; the main theme remains a structural market.
Although altcoins have rebounded sharply in the short term, especially the AI Agent sector that previously experienced severe overselling with astonishing gains of 200%-300%, it is important to be cautious that this rebound is more like emotional repair rather than a trend reversal.
In fact, the prices of many altcoins are still far below the bull market peak in November 2024. The market's confidence in these tokens has not yet recovered, and the rebound is more a result of inertia after overselling rather than a real improvement in fundamentals.
Currently, this round of rebound is an important 'opportunity to switch vehicles':
Clear out junk coins.
Transfer assets to top assets like BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, SUI, and BNB.
Seize structural market trends instead of blindly chasing highs and selling lows.
This idea of switching stocks is reminiscent of the past two years in the U.S. stock market where 'only seven giants can rise.' The structural differentiation in the crypto market is only going to intensify in the future.
How to accurately position your investments? Mlion.ai helps you anticipate the flow of funds in advance.
In the context of increasing rotation of altcoins and frequent market style switches, relying solely on intuition to accurately hit the rhythm is clearly insufficient.
At this time, using AI-driven crypto research platforms like Mlion.ai becomes especially important. By monitoring on-chain fund flows, scoring systems for popular coins, and analyzing real-time whale movements, Mlion.ai can help users:
Capture signals of large capital entering the market at the first moment.
Quickly filter out truly high-quality assets that are supported by funds and enthusiasm.
Avoid the trap of low liquidity and high-risk 'air coins'.
Especially during this round of altcoin rebound, Mlion.ai's on-chain data dashboard and hot trend charts have continuously warned of multiple oversold rebound opportunities, helping users remain rational during market volatility and seize opportunities as they emerge.
In the harsh 'zero-sum game' of the crypto market, having accurate intelligence means having the greatest trump card for survival and even victory.
Summary: Altcoins have opportunities, but the bull market is far away; structural markets are the key.
Altcoins do have short-term trading opportunities, but it is essential to recognize the reality: a comprehensive bull market will not return easily. The future crypto market will be one where the strong get stronger, and high-quality assets dominate.
In this round of rebounds, clearing out marginal projects and heavily investing in core assets is the only way to achieve long-term victory.
In this era of information explosion and intense emotional fluctuations, intelligent research platforms like Mlion.ai, which deeply integrate AI and on-chain data, are undoubtedly your strongest weapon to navigate through the fog and uncover the truth.
The market will not wait for those who hesitate; only those who are quick-witted and make rational judgments can truly seize the next golden age belonging to the crypto world.
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. The risks of investing in digital assets are extremely high; please make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance.
