A new week begins, good morning brothers!
There are quite a few macro data points this week:
Tuesday: US labor mobility data for March.
Wednesday: The US GDP and price index for the first quarter; Thursday: Bank of Japan interest rate decision.
Friday: US non-farm payroll and unemployment rate for April.
At the same time, there are also token unlocks; noteworthy are SUI's 74 million and OP's 31.34 million.
The most important data this week is the US GDP for the first quarter, so the upcoming fluctuations might be heavily influenced by the GDP data, followed by the PCE data which will be released one and a half hours later on the same day as the GDP. Although this data does not involve too many tax issues.
Last night, Bitcoin surged strongly from 93560, this morning reaching a high of 94517 before starting to pull back, currently priced around 93800u. US stock futures opened slightly down, causing BTC to decline in sync. Ethereum's performance today is weak, dipping in the morning and then entering a low range consolidation.
Technical analysis:
Resistance level: 94500-95300u
Support level: 93500-92500u
Market outlook: The overall trend of BTC still leans bullish, but it is currently consolidating in the range of 91000-95500u. As long as it does not fall below 90000u, the upward momentum still exists. Consider gradually buying on dips in the 92500-91000u range; if it rebounds to 95500u without breaking through, you can take profits.
What will happen next?
In the long run, the future is bright:
1) Bitcoin has entered the mainstream world as the leading cryptocurrency, and there is a possibility of becoming a reservoir for US Treasury bonds and extending outward in US dollars.
2) In the process of the world shifting from unipolar to multipolar, Bitcoin's hard currency attribute will inevitably play a better and greater role.
In the medium term, the adjustment has not yet ended:
1) When prices rise, consensus is strong; strong consensus means everyone has a common expectation. What were the previous expectations? Interest rate cuts, ETFs, Trump's victory, these are all potential or actual favorable factors.
2) Now that these favorable factors have been realized, there are currently no particularly strong consistent favorable factors expected in the market, such as interest rate cuts where there is inconsistency between Powell and Trump.
3) When market consistency is strong, consensus is formed, and a trend will emerge; similarly, when market consistency is weak, a divergence will form, leading to a volatile market.
When will it rise?
1. From a technical perspective, when the long-term indicators are oversold, a bottom is formed;
2. From a macro perspective, as the current uncertainties are gradually digested and accepted by the market, moving from the worst scenario to less bad, then to a bit better, and increasingly better.
3. From the perspective of the crypto market itself, look at this chart:
Current market:
Although there are many leading projects in the current market and funds are dispersed, this wave of AI market has only lasted about 3-5 days, with leading projects rising only slightly. AIXBT, TURBO, WLD, VIRTUAL and other tokens have seen around 50% growth, while AI MEME, LGAMEFE and most other tokens have limited growth.
The whales are currently harvesting, profits are not much, and external funds have not yet entered on a large scale; many people are just testing the waters with a small portion. This is just a short-term pullback, building momentum for a larger rise later. Those sticking to the AI track can reap wealth in this wave of market. The RWA track is worth watching.
Current targets to watch:
• AI track: WLD, AIXBT, Virtual, IO, TAO
• RWA track: ONDO, RIO, PLUME
$VIRTUAL
A well-known old project in the AI Agent theme $VIRTUAL (ranking very high in the first generation AI Agent narrative).
It is possible that the listing on Binance was at a bottom, adding some base positions, and adding more on a pullback. This is part of the current hot tracks - AI.
BASE's AI Agent leader 2 has experienced a long-term pullback from its peak, with increasing volume at the bottom.
It is said that there will be major projects at the Virtuals conference in May and June, related to ACP.
$PLUME
PLUME is quietly forging a completely different path: besides being very stable since its price went online.
40+ exchanges are listed, Gray Scale's examination list.
Nest TVL breaks 50 million USD, Skylink crosses 17 chains with revenue flow, Apollo is the only bet on the RWA project.
Narrative, collaboration, and products are all accelerating towards implementation.
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