Bitcoin (BTC) has risen 2.04% in the last 24 hours, briefly exceeding $95,000. Ethereum (ETH) has risen 1.80%, approaching the $1800 mark.
Bitcoin is currently at a range where a significant amount of chips are trapped. This trapped area cannot be broken through easily unless there is a major positive catalyst or Bitcoin has sufficiently adjusted to accumulate energy. Bitcoin has also rebounded close to the Fibonacci 0.618 level, and the probability of a recent upward push towards $100,000 is not high, especially with the Dubai Token 2049 conference tomorrow. Will Bitcoin continue to drop whenever there is a conference?
Here, we also need to defend against a short-term drop. Another important reference point is the 120-day moving average, which is currently at 91,700. In the short term, we are above the 120-day moving average, which is not too bad, but if it falls below it, it may trigger panic selling. For Bitcoin, the higher it goes in the short term, the more one should take partial profits rather than chasing the price up; chasing is not cost-effective.
When Bitcoin is volatile, funds will flow into altcoins, so pay more attention to altcoins. If Bitcoin falls below the 120-day moving average, it is essential to reduce positions for risk aversion.
This week, we need to closely monitor the non-farm payroll and PCE data, as this will be the first macro data since the trade war, which will directly guide market sentiment and expectations. If the data is very bad, paving the way for the Fed to cut rates, then the final drop might be coming.
On the altcoin front:
To judge the recovery of altcoins, one can refer to Bitcoin's market cap share, which is currently 64%, close to the last bull market peak of 71%, and is expected to struggle to reach that peak. Previously, when Bitcoin's share dropped in November-December, altcoins experienced upward movements, and a downward turn in its share is a key signal for altcoins to start.
Keep a close eye on the exchange rate between Ethereum and Bitcoin. As the largest public chain, Ethereum's trend reflects whether funds are flowing out of Bitcoin.
From a macro and on-chain data perspective, ETH is in a bottom range, and below $1500 is a buying opportunity, but an economic recession could cause further declines. Currently, retail investors and whales are increasing their ETH holdings, but ETH relies on liquidity, and its gains are limited during monetary tightening.
The AI track is rebounding strongly. Who is the most expensive now? Here are the market capitalization rankings of popular coins and their daily gains!
1, WLD, +1.17%, 11.2B;
2, TAO, +9.3%, 8B;
3, RENDER, +8.15%, 2.4B;
4, FET, +1.28%, 1.93B;
5, VIRTUAL, +38.8%, 1.47B;
6, FARTCOIM, +2.71%, 1.1B;
7, KAITO, -0.56%, 923M;
8, VANA, +7.89%, 748M;
9, AI16Z, +24%, 322M;
10, SHELL, +16.8%, 220M;
11, AIXBT, +18.9%, 154M;
12, COOKIE, +23%, 149M;
13, ARC, +10%, 67M;
14, Griffain, +2.9%, 63M;
15, ZEREBRO, +11%, 54M;
16, SKYAI, -2%, 41M;
17, AWARMS, +11%, 30M;
The AI sector continues to heat up, with potential coins like VIRTUAL, COOKIE, AIXBT, CGPT, SHELL making the list.
Those who invested early in the AI sector have already seen double returns.
I recommended VIRTUAL when it was only 1.07; it is now 1.49. I mentioned yesterday that the AI track is worth paying attention to, and currently, the coins in the AI sector are rebounding the strongest.
Pick a few that you are most optimistic about and focus on increasing positions, preferably prioritizing leading projects. For example, VIRTUAL has reached a new high again. Others to consider are $AIXBT or AI16Z and $COOKIE. Those with a strong appetite can gamble on TUT and ACT.
The current heat in the AI field is reminiscent of the explosion of the metaverse in 2021, such as sand, mana, axs, magic; I believe everyone remembers. Doubling in one day, five times in a week. If external funds are to flow massively into web3, there must be a sufficiently large entry point.
This time, there is no doubt that the AI sector is propping up this entry point. Of course, meme coins are also good, but when it comes to storytelling, AI has a definite advantage.
The AI track is definitely one of the main lines of speculation in this round of the bull market.
Decentralized GPURender Network (RNDR) provides AI training computing power, with broad prospects as AI develops.
AI Artificial Intelligence Projects:getgrass_io (GRASS) shows significant potential in the DePIN and AI data fields.
AI infrastructure Fetch.ai (FET) is promoting AI applications in the Cosmos ecosystem, with significant growth potential.
AI Agentai16zeliza (AI16z) has seen its 24-hour gains expand to 29% due to news of its listing on Bithumb.
AI infrastructure Vanarchain (VANRY) focuses on decentralized L1 for artificial intelligence, payment finance, and real-world brand adoption.
