What Trump says now should not be taken too seriously; he just said he wants to significantly reduce tariffs on China, but yesterday he said, 'Unless China makes substantial concessions, tariffs on China will not be lifted.' From Trump's repeated statements, we can see that he does not actually care about China's countermeasures, but he does care about market performance, especially the US dollar and US bonds.
Last week, when US bonds were sold off and yields soared, he came out to say some soft words to soothe the market. In recent days, as US bond yields have started to decline, Trump feels he has regained his confidence and has begun to be tough again.
Therefore, regarding Trump's rhetoric, everyone doesn’t need to pay too much attention to it lately; just keep an eye on US bond yields. If the yields soar, he will definitely come out to soothe and boost the market; if the yields come back down, he will start to be tough again, and the market will see another drop. But this 'wolf is coming' story probably can't go on for too long; the tariff war still needs to be fought, and the market cannot collapse, which is truly difficult for the old man.
In terms of technical analysis, what Sol particularly needs to be wary of now is whether this small head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour cycle will take shape:
Now the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder have all formed, with 146 being the neckline position. It has just briefly broken below the neckline; if the price is suppressed at the neckline, the head and shoulders top can be confirmed. According to the measurement target method of the head and shoulders pattern, a future pullback is expected to reach the 134-133 area.
Today, the focus for Sol is whether 146 can hold down. More precisely, we need to see if the moving averages on the 30M chart can suppress it; the key is this area.
There is no need to worry about the medium to long term. The previous rise in the daily chart has already driven the daily moving averages to form a golden cross. The recent pullback is also part of the process of building the second bullish position on the daily chart. Patience is required to wait for the second position on the daily chart, as aiming for the second upward segment is the best strategy.
Overall, BTC's adjustment is slightly stronger. The daily chart has also turned bullish, and the 4-hour adjustment is a high-level consolidation, still maintaining a bullish mindset.
However, the daily line is still quite far from the moving averages, so a deeper adjustment is needed here, or a long period of slight consolidation to repair the indicators. If there is a direct strong pull, it is easy to exhaust oneself and backfire.
In the latter market, pay attention to the support near 91. If there is a long period of slight consolidation, this may be a relatively solid bottom; if the market chooses to drop rapidly for correction, then we will try to guess the bottom on the 4-hour chart at that time.
ETH is currently consistent with BTC on the 4-hour chart, showing a relatively strong adjustment, but the risk is that the daily moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, which is relatively weak compared to BTC and Sol. Future upward movement will still follow rather than lead.
