I. Market cycle judgment
▶︎1. Major trend direction
- Long-term (weekly level): maintain bullish expectations, technical indicators show that the upward trend is not broken.
- Short-term (daily level): there is a demand for pullbacks, and severe fluctuations (crashes or consolidations) may occur.
▶︎2. Key time nodes
- Risk before interest rate cuts: a significant correction ("sharp drop") is likely to occur before the Fed cuts rates, be alert to market sentiment reversals.
- Current phase: the market is in a high-stakes game period, operational difficulty has significantly increased, need to strengthen risk control.
II. Operational difficulties and countermeasures
▶︎Risk points:
Market's fear of heights spreads
Bearish forces gathering
Altcoin differentiation market
Liquidity fluctuations (trouble)
▶︎Countermeasures:
Avoid blindly chasing highs, take profits in stages to lock in gains.
Be wary of market makers pulling back sharply to clear positions, do not heavily short against the trend.
Some coins have rebounded to previous highs and need to be treated differently.
Strict position control, no single trade exceeding 2%-4% of total capital.
III. Core trading discipline
▶︎1. Position management
- Determine position based on loss: calculate the acceptable loss per trade based on stop-loss levels, and reverse-engineer the opening volume.
- Position diversification: avoid heavy single-bet positions, retain at least 60% of flexible capital.
▶︎2. Take profit and stop loss
- Gradual profit-taking: take profits in stages based on stop-loss levels, or can also reduce positions in 2-3 batches during high rises (e.g., 50%→30%→20%).
- Dynamic stop loss: after making a profit, move the stop loss up to the breakeven point to protect capital.
▶︎3. Psychological control
- Refuse to hold losing trades: strictly stop loss on losing trades, do not violate plans due to "fear of heights" or "fear of missing out".
- Reduce expectations: give up long-term holding fantasies, focus on short-term swings.
IV. Anticipating main force behavior and retail investor strategies
▶︎1. Market maker strategy (Zhang Liang's strategy)
- Possible pathways: clear leveraged positions through repeated fluctuations (sharp drops → high rises → further sharp drops).
- Typical strategy: create "false breakouts" to lure in buyers/sellers, using market FOMO emotions to harvest profits.
▶︎2. Retail investor responses (over-the-wall ladder)
- Flexible guerilla tactics: shorten holding periods, take profits and walk away, do not become emotionally attached to positions.
- Contrarian thinking: gradually reduce positions when others are greedy, seize opportunities to buy low during panic sell-offs.
- Tool assistance: use conditional orders/grid trading to cope with severe fluctuations.
V. Key reminders
▶︎- Altcoin differentiation: be cautious of selling pressure for coins that have rebounded to March highs, observe the correlation with the overall market for those that have not reached previous highs.
▶︎- Trend change signals: if BTC daily closes below EMA20 consecutively, be alert to trend reversals.
▶︎- Ultimate principle: better to miss out than to make mistakes, preserve capital for the next cycle.
⚠️Summary: the current market is in a "high volatility + low certainty" phase, it is recommended to switch to a defensive strategy, using "small positions to test the waters + strict discipline" to navigate the consolidation period, waiting for the trend to clarify after interest rate cuts.